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March 25, 2022/afternoon report

March 25, 2022

Temperatures are running a degree or two cooler than 24 hours ago. This is mainly due to a layer of high, thin cirrus clouds that are filtering the sunshine. Even so, mid to upper 80s will be the order of the day this afternoon. Satellite imagery illustrates very well a developing Pacific storm still well out over the mid Pacific. It will be approaching the central coast Sunday afternoon. The chance of showers will increase after midnight Sunday night with active weather continuing through at least Monday night, possibly into the morning commute Tuesday. The GFS model places the low’s center of circulation near Monterey Monday evening then southeast to Yuma Tuesday morning. This favors decent amounts of rain for the southern half of the valley as well as the mountain and coastal areas of southern California. Quantitative precipitation estimates are indicating possibly as much as a half inch over the valley portion of Kern County and two-thirds of an inch over portions of Tulare County with lighter amounts from Fresno County north. Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening as a cool, unstable air mass moves overhead and interacts with warm currents of air moving up from the ground. Localized heavy rain and possibly some small hail will accompany any thunderstorm activity. Showers should end by 9:00am Tuesday with dry weather for the remainder of next week as upper level high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures underneath this high will be in the 70s rather than the 80s.


Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night, becoming likely after midnight. Periods of showers Monday through Monday night with a chance of showers before 9:00am Tuesday. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. any thunderstorm activity will be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday.


Short Term:        

Madera 52/86/52/81 Reedley 53/87/54/82 Dinuba 51/86/54/80
Porterville 53/88/54/81 Lindsay 53/86/54/81 Delano 55/88/56/83
Bakersfield 61/88/60/82 Taft 64/85/61/81 Arvin 55/88/57/83
Lamont 54/88/57/84 Pixley 53/86/53/83 Tulare 52/86/53/81
Woodlake 53/87/54/82 Hanford 53/87/54/81 Orosi 52/86/53/80


Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and early evenings through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 8 to 15 mph Sunday night with stronger gusts. Winds Monday will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to near 30 mph possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds Monday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing after midnight.


Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Sunday evening. The chance of showers should pick up from the west after midnight Sunday. Most models place the center of circulation just south of Monterey Monday evening with a pool of cool, unstable air above central California. Models track this system on shore near Monterey then southeastward to near Yuma by midday Wednesday. Heaviest precipitation will be over the coastal and mountain areas of southern California where 1 to 2 inches will be possible. If models are accurate at all, the south valley may do pretty well with possibly as much as .50 over the valley portion of Kern County and possibly .66 or so over Tulare County and possibly Kings County, as well. From Fresno County north, expect .25 or less from this event. Models are showing the storm slowing down just a tad, so showers may last through midmorning Tuesday. The remainder of next week will be dry.


Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.

Next report: March 26