March 27, 2022
A full blown winter storm is located roughly 500 miles west of the northern California coast. This storm has the potential for creating all kinds of interesting weather over the next 36 hours or so. Later this afternoon and tonight, pressure will begin to rapidly fall just off shore and, with considerably higher pressure over the Great Basin and high deserts, the proper configuration will be in place for strong, gusty winds blowing down slope off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the extreme south valley. More in the wind discussion below.
Models this morning track the low just a bit further north, meaning just about the entire valley from Merced south could potentially pick up significant amounts of precipitation. The coldest and most unstable pool of air will be overhead from midafternoon through the overnight hours. So, if we get some breaks in the overcast, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. If these storms do develop, they’ll be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail.
The center of circulation will be near Santa Maria Monday evening then will open up into a trough as it moves into the Desert Southwest Tuesday. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will follow for a warming trend. However, temperatures this time around will only be in the 70s, just marginally above average until next weekend when the high builds further north and lower 80s will be possible.
Medium range models are projecting a dry pattern with the storm track moving over high pressure located over the eastern Pacific and moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy through the late evening hours.. showers after midnight tonight, continuing Monday and Monday night. A chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Mostly cloudy Tuesday morning, clearing Tuesday afternoon but remaining mostly cloudy over eastern Tulare County and Kern County into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
Madera 81/51/64/47/66 | Reedley 82/51/65/47/68 | Dinuba 80/50/64/46/68 |
Porterville 82/51/65/48/69 | Lindsay 82/50/64/45/68 | Delano 83/52/66/50/67 |
Bakersfield 84/55/66/53/66 | Taft 81/56/63/54/64 | Arvin 84/57/67/52/67 |
Lamont 85/56/67/50/66 | Pixley 82/48/65/48/66 | Tulare 80/48/64/47/67 |
Woodlake 81/49/64/46/68 | Hanford 82/50/65/48/68 | Orosi 81/48/64/46/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/67 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 44/72 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 43/72 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 45/76 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 46/79 |
Two Week Outlook: April 2 through April 8: This model indicates a dome of high pressure will be right along the Pacific coast, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this period will be very low.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: The configuration I look for to determine the potential generation of strong winds in the central valley will set up this afternoon and tonight. Rapidly falling pressure just off shore combined with higher pressure over the Great Basin and high desert will create a strong pressure gradient, triggering strong, gusty downslope winds off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the south valley. Wind gusts exceeding 50 mph will be possible with strongest winds near the bottom of the Grapevine, but with strong winds from Taft on the west to Highway 58 on the east. Winds exceeding 40 mph may make it as far north as metro Bakersfield. Gusty southeast winds will also work their way up the Interstate 5 corridor along the west side. Winds elsewhere will be mainly out of the east/southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing Monday night. Winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph. Winds during the night and morning hours will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Southern California will take the brunt of this major winter storm. Even so, central California will do quite well. The foothills of the Sierra Nevada should pick up between 1 and 1.50 inches. Blended model information this morning for various locations in the valley indicate this will be a significant rain event. This model spits out .72 for Porterville, .84 for Fresno, and .53 for Bakersfield. The chance for rain will rapidly increase after midnight tonight and will continue through Monday night. If we observe breaks in the overcast Monday afternoon, it may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms. Most, if not all, of the action should be over by sunrise Tuesday with dry weather for the remainder of next week. in fact, if the two week model is correct, dry weather should continue through at least April 9.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 94%/29%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 30%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.33, Parlier 1.11, Arvin 1.23, Orange Cove 1.14, Porterville 1.12, Delano 1.09. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 61, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 59. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 91/31
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 20 +20. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.47. Monthly .20 -1.41
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.70. Monthly, .87 -.11
Average Temperature this month: 57.6 +1.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:50, Sunset, 7:18, hours of daylight, 12:25
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 87 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 74 7.84 69 11.30 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 81 7.12 70 10.14 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 65 6.97 72 9.67 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.55 17 8.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 61 6.44 72 8.92 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 79 4.13 62 6.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 87 2.58 49 5.24 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 117 1.62 42 3.83 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 59 5.70 53 10.81 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 70 6.73 63 10.76 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 55 6.86 60 11.51 13.32
Next report: March 28
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.