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March 27, 2022/afternoon report

March 27, 2022

Doppler radar out of Monterey is showing the first bands of precipitation around 75 miles off shore. Satellite imagery shows the cold front from this system well out ahead of the parent low which is about 600 miles west of the central coast. Rain will spread on shore this evening then will spread into the valley after midnight. There may be somewhat of a lull in the action Monday morning before the parent low begins to move overhead during the afternoon and evening hours.


Now that we are into longer days, the ground will have a better chance to warm, allowing warm currents of air to move skyward and interact with relatively cold air moving in aloft. This process will trigger numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the valley tomorrow afternoon and evening. Showers will continue for a time Monday night but will end by sunrise over the valley and later in the morning over the mountain areas. Now that this is moving upon us, one thing is definitely clear: we will have a significant rain event and the potential for strong winds, which is summarized in the wind and rain summaries below.


A flat zone of upper level  high pressure will follow, resulting in dry weather for the remainder of next week. temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 70s during the workweek then, as the high strengthens and ridges northward over the weekend, readings will approach the 80 degree mark.


Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this evening. Rain likely after midnight. Periods of showers Monday and Monday nigh with a chance of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Clearing Tuesday with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.


Short Term:        

Madera 51/64/47/67 Reedley 51/65/47/68 Dinuba 51/64/45/67
Porterville 52/67/47/68 Lindsay 51/66/47/65 Delano 52/65/49/68
Bakersfield 55/65/52/64 Taft 56/64/54/62 Arvin 54/64/51/65
Lamont 52/66/51/67 Pixley 48/65/47/66 Tulare 49/65/47/65
Woodlake 47/66/47/65 Hanford 49/65/47/67 Orosi 48/64/47/66


Wind Discussion: The potential for strong winds in the extreme south valley from late this afternoon through much of the overnight hours is certainly there. A CalTrans station at the bottom of the Grapevine is currently reporting gusts of 33 mph. The weather station at Kettleman City is reporting gusts to 27 mph. A station operated by SoCal Edison is reporting gusts to 36 mph, also near the bottom of the Grapevine. Further north, Madera has reported a peak gust of 35 mph. These winds will increase over the next several hours, possibly gusting to 50 mph near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. As the low moves on shore late tonight, winds will begin to subside. Outside of these wind prone areas tonight, expect winds out of the east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph at times with stronger gusts. On Monday and Monday evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming light later Monday night through Tuesday.


Rain:  The national blended model continues to indicate we are in for a good soaking throughout the valley. This model puts out stats of .65 in Fresno, .50 in Bakersfield, and .72 in Porterville with similar projections throughout the valley. This event will come in two phases. The cold front will move through late tonight and early tomorrow morning with widespread precipitation. There will be a lull in the action Monday morning. The main area of low pressure will begin to move overhead during the afternoon and evening Monday. this will trigger widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will keep the event going through the evening hours Monday. the backside of the low will move into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona by sunrise Tuesday, putting an end to the rain on the valley floor. Lingering showers will continue over the mountains for a time Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday will be dry as will the remainder of next week.


Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.

Next report: March 28