March 28, 2022
An area of rain roughly 75 miles wide is moving through the valley at this hour. This area of precipitation is running from south to north along the cold front well ahead of the parent low which is still off shore. There will be somewhat of a lull during the late morning to afternoon hours before the main area of low pressure begins to move overhead this afternoon and tonight. The low is projected to be just west of Santa Maria by early afternoon and over the south valley later this evening. It will be over Arizona by midday Tuesday.
As the pool of cold, unstable air moves overhead, the freezing level over Oakland has dropped to 5,900 feet. As warm currents of air rise skyward, showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out this afternoon, adding to some already decent rain totals. The rain will end by sunrise Tuesday with the exception of the mountain areas where showers will linger well into the morning hours Tuesday.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure from the eastern Pacific will build in from the west. California will be under the eastern flank of the high through Friday, putting us under a northwest flow aloft. This will maintain temperatures generally in the lower 70s. the high will build northward and strengthen over the weekend, allowing temperatures to warm to near 80. Medium range models show a dry pattern continuing through at least the first week in April.
Forecast: Rain for a time this morning. Showers this afternoon and tonight. A chance of isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail this afternoon and evening. Clearing Tuesday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/44/68/45/72 | Reedley 64/43/68/45/71 | Dinuba 64/44/67/47/72 |
| Porterville 64/43/68/45/71 | Lindsay 65/43/68/45/71 | Delano 66/46/69/47/71 |
| Bakersfield 64/51/65/52/70 | Taft 63/52/64/54/69 | Arvin 64/52/65/47/71 |
| Lamont 64/46/69/50/70 | Pixley 66/45/67/46/72 | Tulare 64/43/65/45/71 |
| Woodlake 66/45/67/46/71 | Hanford 64/45/69/47/72 | Orosi 64/44/67/45/71 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 43/72 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/72 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 46/79 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 46/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/79 |
Two Week Outlook: April 2 through April 8: This model indicates a dome of high pressure will be right along the Pacific coast, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this period will be very low.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds have gusted as high as 32 mph at Meadows Field in Bakersfield and 44 mph at the bottom of the Grapevine. These winds will begin to decrease as the morning wears on as the low moves on shore and pressure differences begin to equalize. Winds this morning will be mainly out of the east/southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to near 35 mph possible in Kern County and along the west side. Winds this afternoon will become out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers and thunderstorms. Winds will decrease later tonight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to 12 mph and generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of calm conditions during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Widespread rain will continue over the next couple of hours and may be locally heavy at times. The current precipitation is along the cold front which will move into the Sierra Nevada later this morning, bringing this part of the storm to a close. Cold, unstable air will move in behind the front and, as the daytime heating process gets cranked up, more showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity will be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Already this morning, Lemoore has recorded .22, Hanford .15, Fresno .22, Madera .35, and Merced .38.
The rain has just recently moved into the south valley which will catch up as the morning wears on. Showers will continue through much of the night with dry weather returning by sunrise Tuesday. Expect dry weather for the remainder of the upcoming week and into the following week.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/15% Porterville, 79%/19%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 10%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.37, Parlier 1.20, Arvin 1.47, Orange Cove 1.26, Porterville 1.24, Delano 1.23. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 62, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 63, Delano 60. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 85/33
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 23 +23. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.53. Monthly .20 -1.47
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.74. Monthly, .87 -.15
Average Temperature this month: 58.0 +1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:49, Sunset, 7:19, hours of daylight, 12:27
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 82 / 53 / 0.37 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 82 / 53 / 0.27 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 83 / 54 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 84 / 54 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 83 / 53 / 0.13 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 82 / 55 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 87 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 74 7.84 69 11.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 81 7.12 70 10.19 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 65 6.97 72 9.73 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.64 18 1.55 17 8.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 61 6.44 72 8.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 79 4.13 61 6.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 86 2.58 49 5.28 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 117 1.62 42 3.85 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 59 5.70 52 10.86 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 70 6.73 62 10.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 55 6.86 59 11.58 13.32
Next report: March 28 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.