April 11, 2022
A complex weather pattern is setting up over the western US. A cold low is dropping southward into Oregon and northern California. A cold front is currently moving through the northern part of the state and has spread showers as far south as Madera County. Showers will continue to spread southward ahead of the front, reaching Kern County later this afternoon. This storm is taking mostly an over land trajectory on its journey south, so precipitation amounts will be generally at or less than .10 over the valley floor. The low will move into the interior west tonight and into the Rockies Tuesday. The air associated with this system is quite cold. The freezing level has dropped from 12,300 feet yesterday morning to 8,900 feet a few hours ago. Freezing levels will eventually come down to about 5,000 feet with snow down to 3,500 feet along the Sierra Nevada.
A zonal, or westerly, flow will develop Tuesday through Thursday then will buckle Friday night and Saturday as the next low pressure system moves inland through the northern half of California. This system appears to be weaker, but may offer light showers Friday night through Saturday.
Some models are now showing yet a third system moving inland Monday night and Tuesday, but for now it looks like any precipitation will be confined to the northern portion of the state.
Temperatures will fall a good ten degrees below average through Thursday then will warm to marginally above average over the weekend.
Forecast: A chance of light showers this morning, mainly from Fresno County north. Light showers this afternoon over the entire valley. A chance of showers for a time tonight. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday leading to a small chance of light showers Friday night and Saturday. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/34/63/33/65 | Reedley 65/34/63/33/64 | Dinuba 64/32/62/32/65 |
| Porterville 66/34/64/34/65 | Lindsay 65/33/64/32/64 | Delano 67/35/64/34/65 |
| Bakersfield 68/38/63/38/64 | Taft 68/40/59/42/62 | Arvin 70/38/65/36/65 |
| Lamont 69/36/64/37/65 | Pixley 64/33/63/32/65 | Tulare 63/32/63/31/64 |
| Woodlake 65/34/64/33/65 | Hanford 67/34/64/35/66 | Orosi 64/34/64/35/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/65 |
Friday
Pm showers possible 42/70 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 44/75 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 40/74 |
Monday
Mostly clear 42/75 |
Two Week Outlook: April 17 through April 23: This model indicates temperatures will rise to at least marginally above average during this period. It also indicates that there will be a semi blocking ridge pattern in place, meaning the chance of precipitation is very low.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Significant differences in pressure will increase as the day progresses, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds throughout the growing area. Expect winds to average 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible, especially along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with stronger gusts.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, Doppler radar was indicating light showers as far south as Madera County, mainly along the east side. Light showers will continue to spread southward today. This system is not carrying a significant amount of water, thus rainfall amounts will be quite light, ranging from just trace amounts upwards to near .10. Locally more will be possible along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Dry weather will return Tuesday and will last through at least Friday morning. Another round of light showers will be possible Friday night and Saturday as a somewhat weaker system moves through. It should, though, have enough dynamics for light showers. Beyond Saturday, models are a mess, ranging from a dry pattern to one which could bring more precipitation Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Frost: A cold air mass will begin to settle over our region beginning today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s, possibly reaching 70 in Kern County. Gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley behind a cold front, driving down dew points. Tonight will be chaotic as the low moves into Nevada. There will be a great deal of wind energy behind the low, no doubt forming upslope clouds along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. These clouds may remain through the night, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. Most of the model information indicates lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the mid to upper 30s. However, blended model information has Porterville at 33 tonight and 32 Tuesday night. This would easily put low spots down to 28 or 29 or so, but that’s only under the right conditions, such as mostly clear skies and little to no wind. My feeling is, a combination of mixing plus winds and cloud cover will keep most locations in the mid to upper 30s tonight. For this forecast, we’ll forecast just the traditionally cold spots near to slightly below freezing and make adjustments in this afternoon’s forecast. Thursday morning will also be chilly with widespread mid to upper 30s. A westerly flow will take over Friday through early the next week to maintain above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
AF |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 71%/22% Porterville, 84%/23%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.81, Parlier 1.42, Arvin 1.63, Orange Cove .1.45, Porterville .1.36, Delano 1.36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 58, Parlier 67, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 70, Delano 63. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 72/47. Record Temperatures: 95/34
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 45 +32. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.99 or -3.67. Monthly .00 -.45
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.66. Monthly, -.26
Average Temperature this month: 65.7 +6.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:29, Sunset, 7:31, hours of daylight, 13:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 73 / M / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.04 75 7.84 65 12.07 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.76 81 7.12 66 10.84 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.69 64 6.97 67 10.43 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.55 16 9.61 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.99 62 6.44 67 9.66 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.80 80 4.13 57 7.24 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 5.01 88 2.58 46 5.67 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.75 119 1.62 41 4.00 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.87 60 5.70 49 11.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.48 75 6.73 59 11.36 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.40 60 6.86 56 12.31 13.32
Next report: April 11/PM
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.