August 6, 2022
The burst of monsoon moisture that actually resulted in measurable rain in parts of the valley yesterday has now moved into Nevada. Fresno received .05 yesterday and Hanford .02 with most other locations tallying trace amounts to nothing at all. Shaver Lake picked up .52 and Wishon Dam .43 for the heaviest amounts I could find over the mountain areas. The winds aloft have now become southwesterly due to a low pressure system approaching the northern California coast. This has nudged the Four Corners high back into the middle of the country. As a result, temperatures will rise to near seasonal levels except for the real estate from Merced County north where marine air is moving through Pacheco Pass and the Delta. Models still hint at another visit from the monsoon. As the low moves northward along the coast of the Pacific Northwest, it will allow high pressure to move back over the Four Corners region. Clouds will begin to increase Monday night from the southeast, again allowing thunderstorm activity to increase over the Sierra Nevada with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated showers over the valley floor Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models show a southwesterly flow developing once again Thursday, however this is a low confidence forecast as the Four Corners high will be in fairly close proximity with the monsoon moving northward just to our east. In fact, the 6 to 10 day forecast and the two week forecast are indicating above average precipitation for central and southern California as a very active monsoon season continues through the end of the month.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. increasing cloudiness Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 96/63/99/65/99 | Reedley 98/64/99/65/99 | Dinuba 97/63/98/65/98 |
| Porterville 97/64/98/65/99 | Lindsay 97/63/98/64/98 | Delano 98/67/98/68/99 |
| Bakersfield 98/73/99/73/99 | Taft 97/73/98/75/98 | Arvin 99/72/99/73/100 |
| Lamont 98/69/99/71/100 | Pixley 97/64/98/65/99 | Tulare 96/63/97/64/97 |
| Woodlake 97/63/98/65/98 | Hanford 98/65/99/67/99 | Orosi 96/63/97/65/98 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 73/96
|
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 72/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 71/98 |
Friday
Mostly clear 68/100 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 68/101 |
Two Week Outlook: August 13 through August 19 This model continues to show a very active monsoon moving into the Desert Southwest, possibly affecting central and southern California from time to time. Temperatures will be marginally above average with above average precipitation.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: The cloud cover and light showers of yesterday have been nudged eastward into Nevada due to a dry southwest flow aloft. Expect dry weather through Monday. there will be a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers again Tuesday and Tuesday night as the winds aloft once again become southerly, causing more monsoonal moisture to be rotated into central California. The chance or measurable rain at any given location is unlikely, but, like yesterday’s event, a few locations could measure a few hundredths. Dry weather will return by late Wednesday. Models show the monsoon just to our east Thursday through next weekend, but it will be a close call.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 65%/24% Porterville, 85%/33%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.00, Parlier 1.65, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 81, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 94, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/66. Record Temperatures: 110/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1347 +228. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 87.4 +6.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:10, Sunset, 7:59, hours of daylight, 13:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 70 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 71 / T /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 71 / 0.05 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 75 / 0.02 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 76 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 99 / 81 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / M / M / M /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 91 / 76 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 73 / T /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 96 / 78 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 65 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA T 21 21 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 05 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 02 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 71 5.63 120 1.68 36 4.68 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.51 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.08 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 8
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.