August 11, 2022
Most locations yesterday were huddled in the mid 90s, just slightly below average for mid August. Today will be the beginning of a slow warming trend which will eventually lead us into a prolonged period of hot weather next week. the big players are a low just to the west of Portland, Oregon and an upper high situated over the southern Rockies. The high clouds above the valley floor this morning are not from the monsoon, but are simply embedded within a southwesterly flow aloft. However, the very active monsoon season will return this weekend and especially next week. the high over the southern Rockies will retrograde and expand westward over California. The clockwise flow around the high will cause monsoonal moisture to rotate in from the southeast this weekend. High resolution models indicate the high will be further west than we’ve seen in a while, possibly allowing some deeper, richer tropical moisture to move in over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the Sierra Nevada. Thunderstorms will begin to roam these areas. A couple of models actually give a chance of measurable rain even on the valley floor Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as moisture from northwest Mexico moves northwestward. The chance of anything measurable at any given location is very small. Typically, these bouts of monsoonal juice result in sprinkles and occasionally a few hundredths, but little else. Still, all of this is worth careful scrutiny. Along with the southeast flow will come a return of hot temperatures as triple digits will become a way of life. Temperatures Tuesday through Friday of next week should be in the 101 to 106 degree range. It’s possible, though, that cloud cover could blunt the heat, but that’s not guaranteed. Both the 6 to 10 day forecast and the two week model are still indicating a very active monsoon with occasional visitations from subtropical moisture from old Mexico moving into California from the southeast. The monsoon has been drier than average the past several years. Fortunately, this year it’s bucking that trend.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Thursday with a slight risk of some sprinkles or isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/65/99/66/100 | Reedley 99/64/99/64/100 | Dinuba 98/63/99/65/99 |
| Porterville 98/64/99/65/101 | Lindsay 97/63/99/65/100 | Delano 98/67/99/68/101 |
| Bakersfield 98/73/99/73/99 | Taft 97/74/98/75/99 | Arvin 99/69/100/71/101 |
| Lamont 99/70/100/71/101 | Pixley 98/65/99/66/99 | Tulare 97/63/98/65/99 |
| Woodlake 98/64/99/65/99 | Hanford 98/65/99/66/100 | Orosi 96/62/98/64/99 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 66/101 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 68/101 |
Tuesday
Variable clouds 70/102 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 72/103 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 73/104 |
Two Week Outlook: August 18 through August 24 This model shows a continuation of an active monsoon season over the Desert Southwest and occasionally California with daily chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and partly cloudy skies over the valley. Above average temperatures will continue.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: Yet another round of monsoonal moisture will be arriving this weekend. High resolution models for Monday night through Thursday are hinting at some deeper tropical moisture moving through with a chance of sprinkles or even a light shower or thunderstorm, especially near the foothills of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low, however isolated pockets could pick up a few hundredths. We’ll know more as we head deeper into the weekend and can tweak this forecast.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 68%/31% Porterville, 82%/31%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.00, Parlier 1.65, Arvin 2.00, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 82, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/65. Record Temperatures: 113/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1437 +238. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.00 +.00
Average Temperature this month: 85.1 +4.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:14, Sunset, 7:53, hours of daylight, 13:42
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 67 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 66 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 65 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 69 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 93 / 65 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 65 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 95 / 70 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / M / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP 00 5.63 120 1.68 36 4.68 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.51 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.08 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 12
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.