September 7, 2022
There are two main areas of focus for this morning’s report. The first is the sweltering heat wave which is currently re=writing history books. Check out yesterday’s weather below and you will see temperatures ranging from 111 at Visalia to 117 at Lemoore. Merced topped out at 116, the hottest ever recorded for any date, while most other locations broke their respective records for the month of September. A couple of different elements are responsible for this heat wave. The first is unusually strong upper level high pressure centered over Utah an extending west over California. The second is a weak off shore flow creating weak downslope winds off the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The pressure difference between San Francisco and Las Vegas is virtually the same this morning, so the off shore component will be eliminated. The temperature at both Fresno and Bakersfield at 5:00am was an incredible 85 degrees with most rural locations in the mid to upper 70s. the upper high will slowly weaken over the next 72 hours, allowing temperatures to slowly come down. Even so, readings at many locations will either hit or top the 100 degree mark today with readings between 104 and 110 Thursday and Friday. The other concern this morning is Hurricane Key which is just to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Kay and her 100 mph winds will hug the Baja coastline, eventually centering just to the west of San Diego Saturday. By then it will just be a tropical low, however it now appears heavy rain will move into southern California with possibly 1 to 2 inch totals over the deserts. Some of this moisture will work into the San Joaquin Valley, especially the south valley. Since this is a tropical system, trying to determine rain fall totals this far out will be difficult, but I’m not ready to eliminate ¼ to ½ inch totals. It’s possible Kay’s moisture may remain just south of the Kern County mountains, leaving the valley essentially dry. If I were to have to bet on rain in the valley, I’d place my wager on Saturday through Sunday night at around 60% or so. Medium range models are showing a weak trough of low pressure over and off the west coast after Monday for a return to near average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. An increasing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday with a slight chance of showers. Clearing Monday night. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 111/72/108/72/106 | Reedley 112/74/109/73/107 | Dinuba 110/72/106/72/106 |
| Porterville 111/75/107/74/106 | Lindsay 111/72/108/71/108 | Delano 112/75/109/74/107 |
| Bakersfield 111/82/107/82/107 | Taft 112/84/109/84/107 | Arvin 112/78/109/77/108 |
| Lamont 111/79/109/76/108 | Pixley 110/74/107/74/106 | Tulare 109/74/106/73/106 |
| Woodlake 110/74/106/73/106 | Hanford 112/75/109/73/108 | Orosi 109/73/106/72/106 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Scattered showers 75/96 |
Sunday
Scattered showers 74/93 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 68/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 67/91 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 63/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 14 through September 20: temperatures will be near to marginally below average with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. The valley will remain dry.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.
Rain: dry conditions will prevail through Friday, and probably through Friday night. Showers will spread over southern california Friday night and Saturday with near 1 inch totals possible over the Imperial Valley and ½ to 1 inch possible along the southern California coast from late Friday through Sunday night. higher resolution models show moisture from Kay moving up the Sierra Nevada with some showers spilling into the central valley. This is especially clear in Tulare and Kern Counties. Latest projections .10 to .25 is possible in Kern and Tulare Counties with trace amount further north. Again, this is for Saturday through Sunday night. There’s a slight chance of showers, mainly near the mountains, Sunday night with dry conditions for Monday night and beyond. It’s been several years since I’ve seen a tropical system moving to a position off the southern California coast and I now consider this a genuine rain threat. Kay’s moisture may be blocked by the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, forming a rain shadow. But historically, tropical systems taking the path of now hurricane Kay have caused problems in the valley.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 69%/16% Porterville, 67%/18%. Midafternoon dew Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 62%/18% Porterville, 69%/23%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.93, Parlier 1.63, Arvin 1.96, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.65, Delano 1.73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 81, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville NA, Delano 85. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 93/62. Record Temperatures: 100/50
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1886 +359. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.91. Monthly, -..01 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 87.6 +9.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:36, Sunset, 7:17, hours of daylight, 12:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 115 / 74 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 114 / 71 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 114 / 80 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 114 / 68 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 117 / 69 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 114 / 80 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 111 / 70 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 113 / 71 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 116 / 79 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 113 / 75 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 5.64 119 1.69 36 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.88 52 13.26 13.32
Next report: Tuesday, September 7 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.