September 9, 2022
This is the last day of the Great 2022 Heat Wave as temperatures will lower to near average Saturday and days thereafter. Initially, this is all courtesy of now tropical storm Kay which is rapidly weakening off the northern Baja coast. The northern limit of the rain shield is near the California/Mexico border, although Doppler radar has indicated showers have spread into San Diego County. Tropical storm Kay will rapidly weaken with the center of circulation moving to the west. Abundant moisture will surge northward through southern California today with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading north into the southern San Joaquin Valley Friday night. Periods of showers will be possible Saturday through Sunday. Quantitative precipitation estimates indicate between a quarter and a half inch will accumulate over Kern and Tulare Counties with only a spattering of light showers from Fresno County north. One to two inches is possible over the Kern County mountains and deserts and the southern Sierra Nevada, especially from Sequoia Park south. Models show all this moisture will be slow to move out, so there will even be a chance of showers Monday. all this tropical juice will finally move into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest Tuesday. A trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California will maintain near average temperatures next week. an even stronger trough will move through Thursday and Friday, possibly lowering temperatures below the 90 degree mark, which will be mighty refreshing. Even though temperatures will be substantially cooler beginning tomorrow, conditions will be very humid with dew points rising into the mid to upper 60s, which is more reminiscent of the Midwest.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning. Increasing cloudiness by late this afternoon, leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially after midnight. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly south of Fresno County, Saturday and Sunday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north. A slight chance of showers Monday. partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 107/73/92/72/93 | Reedley 108/73/93/72/93 | Dinuba 106/72/92/72/93 |
| Porterville 107/75/89/72/92 | Lindsay 107/72/92/71/94 | Delano 108/75/89/75/93 |
| Bakersfield 108/83/87/75/91 | Taft 107/82/86/76/88 | Arvin 108/77/88/73/90 |
| Lamont 107/79/88/85/91 | Pixley 107/75/92/71/93 | Tulare 107/74/91/72/91 |
| Woodlake 107/73/91/71/92 | Hanford 108/74/92/72/92 | Orosi 106/73/92/72/91 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Slight chance of showers 68/92 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 63/94 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 61/91 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 57/88 |
Friday
Mostly clear 56/87 |
Two Week Outlook: September 16 through September 22: this model indicates a refreshing trough of low pressure will be along the west coast, allowing marine air in from time to time. The result will be somewhat below average temperatures and dry conditions.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to 15 mph through Monday with locally stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms.
Rain: The first big surge of precipitation from tropical storm Kay is knocking on the doors of San Diego and Imperial Counties. Rain will spread over southern California today, possibly reaching as far north as Kern County tonight. Significant precipitation will spread up the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains and deserts, spilling into the southern San Joaquin Valley with possibly as much as a quarter to a half inch from tonight through Monday over Kern and Tulare Counties. Most high resolution models indicate very little precipitation will occur from Fresno Count north. As tropical storm Kay unwinds and becomes a depression off the northern Baja coast, more bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread over the south valley and up the Sierra Nevada Sunday with even a small chance of showers Monday. a westerly flow will develop by Monday night which will finally move all this tropical moisture east of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday with dry weather thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 61%/16% Porterville, 64%/17%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.95, Parlier 1.66, Arvin 1.96, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 81, Arvin, 82, Orange Cove 83, Porterville NA, Delano 85. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 93/62. Record Temperatures: 107/50
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2010 +421. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.60. Monthly ..05 +.05
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.91. Monthly, -..01 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 88.6 +10.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:37, Sunset, 7:14, hours of daylight, 12:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 109 / 70 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 106 / 69 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 78 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 106 / 69 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 107 / 74 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 108 / 82 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 104 / 69 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 105 / 74 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 105 / 84 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 107 / M / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 5.64 119 1.69 36 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.88 52 13.26 13.32
Next report: Friday, September 9 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.