September 17, 2022
Satellite imagery this afternoon nicely depicts a developing storm still well off the northwest California coast. This system is dropping southward with the cloud shield already overspreading northern California. Yesterday, models began to show the center’s path moving a bit further north and that same trend shows up this afternoon. It appears the south valley will pick up little to no precipitation from this event as a strong southwesterly flow will develop along the bottom side, forming a strong rain shadow from the Coast Range, sweeping northeastward from Kern County and through Tulare County. This system is moving southward along the coast at a pretty good clip but will slow to a crawl as it approaches the coast Monday. showers will spread over the northern portion of the valley later Sunday night then southward over the remainder of the growing area Monday, although, again, it appears to be pretty much of a non event for the south valley barring something unforeseen. The northern half of the state will do well with this system as quantitative precipitation estimates indicate one to two inches will fall over the northern mountains of California. Rainfall amounts for the valley could tally up to decent amounts over the northern half of the valley. We should see half inch totals and possibly more in Merced County, sloping down to a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Fresno County with less than a tenth in Kings and Tulare Counties. The valley portion of Kern County will likely pick up no more than trace amounts. The chance of showers will continue through Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday morning. Upper level high pressure will follow and usher in a warming trend. However, temperatures will not be anywhere near those of that brutal heat wave we experienced earlier this month.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night, mainly after midnight from Fresno County north. Showers likely Monday north of Kern County with sprinkles or scattered light showers in Kern County. Showers likely from Fresno County north Monday night through Tuesday night with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Partly cloudy Wednesday with a small chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s with lower 60s in Kern County. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will climb into the lower 80s. lows Sunday night will cool into the mid 50s to possibly lower 60s in portions of Kern County.
Next report: Sunday, September 18