October 4, 2022
Short term, a ridge of upper level high pressure is oriented northeast to southwest across the west coast. The pleasant temperatures of the past few days will be replaced by late summer type temperatures as we will be moving into the mid 90s at most locations Thursday through Sunday. Hottest locations will come in at about 97 to 98, especially over the weekend. A cut off low will begin to develop over northern Baja Thursday. The combination of the large high along the west coast and the cut off low will turn winds aloft easterly. Models show mid and high level moisture moving into southern California this weekend. It’s possible some of this moisture may creep up the Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday for a chance of at least isolated thunderstorms over the high country. I always watch these systems closely this time of year. Under the right circumstances, the easterly flow aloft can nudge these storms out over the foothills and even into the eastern San Joaquin Valley. The chance of rain Sunday and Monday is extremely low, so for now we’ll keep that chance out of the forecast and watch this over the coming days. Models depict an amplified pattern next week as a large high develops over the eastern Pacific and ridges into the Gulf of Alaska while a significant trough of low pressure digs southward into the middle of the country. Most models maintain that low over northern Baja all the way through next Thursday and then show it finally dissipating by next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/55/93/56/94 | Reedley 91/54/94/57/95 | Dinuba 89/53/92/55/94 |
| Porterville 90/54/93/60/94 | Lindsay 90/52/93/55/94 | Delano 91/57/94/57/96 |
| Bakersfield 89/65/90/68/94 | Taft 89/67/92/69/93 | Arvin 91/60/94/61/96 |
| Lamont 91/61/95/64/95 | Pixley 90/57/93/59/95 | Tulare 89/53/93/55/93 |
| Woodlake 89/54/93/58/95 | Hanford 91/57/93/58/95 | Orosi 89/52/92/55/95 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 57/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/96 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 57/95 |
Monday
Mostly clear 55/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Two Week Outlook: October 11 through October 17: This model continues to depict a dry pattern for central California. Late season monsoon moisture will continue to move into Arizona and New Mexico. It appears this moisture will be too far to the southeast to affect central California. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning through the early morning hours will be variable to no more than 12 mph. winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA, Porterville, 90%/37%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.38, Parlier 1.20, Arvin 1.39, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.17, Delano 1.18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 76, Arvin, 76, Porterville 81, Delano 80. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 84/55. Record Temperatures: 102/42
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -7. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.02 Monthly .,00 -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.01. Monthly, -.00 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 73.7 +3.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:58, Sunset, 6:36, hours of daylight, 11:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1615 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 61 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 86 / 58 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 86 / 65 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 13.32
Next report: Wednesday, October 5
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.