October 10, 2022
Satellite imagery depicts mid and high level clouds over the Kern County mountains, the Sierra Nevada, and over parts of the valley. This is from a weak upper air disturbance which has developed just west of San Francisco. models show this system morphing into a cut off low off the central coast then centering somewhere over or just off the southern California coast by Wednesday night. It’s projected to remain in that same general area through Saturday. Even though the moisture field is very limited around this system, the mountain areas will add enough lift to the atmosphere for a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each day through the remainder of the week. that chance will spread into southern California at mid week. the chance for measurable rain on the valley floor remains very low, although we will have to watch carefully as cut off lows are, historically, full of surprises. This system is actually embedded within upper level high pressure over the western states and off shore. This will result in the continuation of above average temperatures. A trough of low pressure is expected to move into California around Sunday or Monday, finally lowering temperatures where it may feel like autumn.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 91/54/91/54/90 | Reedley 92/55/93/55/91 | Dinuba 91/54/91/53/92 |
| Porterville 92/55/93/56/91 | Lindsay 92/53/92/54/90 | Delano 92/56/93/57/92 |
| Bakersfield 91/68/90/66/89 | Taft 91/70/91/71/90 | Arvin 93/62/92/61/91 |
| Lamont 92/62/93/62/91 | Pixley 91/57/91/57/90 | Tulare 90/55/93/55/91 |
| Woodlake 91/55/93/56/90 | Hanford 92/56/92/56/91 | Orosi 90/54/91/54/91 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 55/90 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 56/89 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 56/90 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 55/88 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/85 |
Two Week Outlook: October 17 through October 23: This model continues to depict a dry pattern for central California. Late season monsoon moisture will continue to move into Arizona and New Mexico. It appears this moisture will be too far to the southeast to affect central California. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Thursday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: More than likely, this will be another dry week. we are, however, dealing with a weak upper air disturbance just west of the Golden Gate. This system will eventually center off the Channel Islands of southern California, giving a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the mountain areas. I put the chance of measurable rain over the valley floor at less than 10%. The forecast for next week looks more autumn like, but for now there’s nothing out there that really grabs my attention as far as rain is concerned.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%33%, Porterville, 91%/23%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.27, Parlier 1.12, Arvin 1.36, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 74, Arvin, 76, Porterville 81, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 81/54. Record Temperatures: 99/42
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -13. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.08 Monthly .,00 -.08
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.03. Monthly, -.03 -.03
Average Temperature this month: 74.8 +6.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03, Sunset, 6:28, hours of daylight, 11:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 57 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 57 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 67 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 93 / 71 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.11 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 13 0.08 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 40 0.10 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 71 0.07 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 500 0.08 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 75 0.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.03 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.10 4.84
SALINAS T T 0 0.00 0 0.10 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 11 0.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.08 13.32
Next report: Tuesday, October 11
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.