October 11, 2022
Yesterday, thunderstorms broke out over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A couple of these actually generated some flash flooding. This is in response to a cut off low which yesterday was just west of the Golden Gate and this morning is just west of Vandenburg. This system will again trigger activity over the mountain areas today, mainly from Sequoia Park southward. The circulation around this feature now has the winds out of the east/northeast over central California so it’s possible a storm or two could drift out over the foothills in Tulare and Kern Counties. However, these storms lose their lift as they move out over the valley floor so no rain is expected there. This low is actually embedded within a large high which covers most of the eastern Pacific and much of the western US. This will keep temperatures above average through the weekend. Models do show marginal weakening of the high as we move into Thursday and Friday, but only marginal cooling is expected. A trough of low pressure will begin to approach the coast during the second half of the weekend, finally kicking that cut off low to the east. Before it does, however, models do show it picking up some monsoonal moisture and throwing it over southern California Sunday but it will be too far to the south to affect the valley. The trough off shore will form a new low off the southern California coast early next week. this should lower temperatures well down into the 80s by Monday.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/56/91/55/89 | Reedley 93/56/92/56/90 | Dinuba 91/55/91/54/88 |
| Porterville 93/54/92/56/90 | Lindsay 92/56/92/55/89 | Delano 93/57/92/56/90 |
| Bakersfield 92/67/91/65/88 | Taft 92/68/90/67/89 | Arvin 93/63/92/61/91 |
| Lamont 93/61/92/60/90 | Pixley 92/57/90/56/88 | Tulare 91/55/92/55/88 |
| Woodlake 91/57/92/56/89 | Hanford 93/56/92/55/90 | Orosi 91/55/92/55/89 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Partly cloudy 56/89 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 55/88 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 54/88 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 54/84 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 53/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 18 through October 24: This model does show a higher than average risk of showers during this time frame, mainly over the southern half of California from a low moving through southern California into the Desert Southwest. Even so, temperatures should be somewhat above seasonal average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Friday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: We will continue to deal with that cut off low now off the southern California coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings will continue over the mountain areas. A few of these storms could drift out over the foothills, mainly in Tulare and Kern Counties, but not over the valley. Models also show a surge of monsoonal moisture into southern California Sunday and Monday, but it looks like it will be too far to the south to affect the central valley.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 73%28%, Porterville, 78%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.31, Parlier 1.11, Arvin 1.37, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.12. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 74, Arvin, 76, Porterville 80, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 81/53. Record Temperatures: 97/38
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -14. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.08 Monthly .,00 -.08
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.03. Monthly, -.03 -.03
Average Temperature this month: 74.9 +6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:04, Sunset, 6:26, hours of daylight, 11:25
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 56 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 65 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 58 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1633 / 90 / 66 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 90 / 69 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 92 / 71 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 11 0.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 36 0.11 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 0.07 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 444 0.09 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 67 0.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.04 6.36
BISHOP T T 0 T 0 0.11 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 10 0.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.09 13.32
Next report: Wednesday, October 12
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.