October 13, 2022
For the third day in a row, the northern limit of the circulation patten from a weak cut off low is just west of San Diego. The northern limit of this system’s cloud cover is over Kern County where some mid and high level clouds are visible. High pressure a lot wraps around the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California. The low off the south coast will slowly move inland. Models continue to show this system picking up more moisture late Saturday into Sunday for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern California with generally clear skies north of Kern County. By Sunday night, the low will move into the Desert Southwest, being kicked eastward by another trough of low pressure which will be just off shore Monday. by the middle of this week, this trough will pinch off and form a new low off the central coast. In its current forecast position, it will increase the chance of shower activity over the mountains again. We’ll have to watch the behavior of this system as there’s an excellent chance of shower activity over the valley floor.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Monday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 89/54/89/54/88 | Reedley 90/55/90/54/89 | Dinuba 88/53/88/53/88 |
| Porterville 90/54/90/54/89 | Lindsay 89/54/89/53/88 | Delano 91/56/90/55/88 |
| Bakersfield 89/65/89/64/89 | Taft 88/68/89/67/87 | Arvin 90/61/90/60/89 |
| Lamont 91/62/90/61/89 | Pixley 89/56/89/55/89 | Tulare 88/54/88/54/87 |
| Woodlake 89/55/89/55/87 | Hanford 90/54/90/54/89 | Orosi 88/53/88/53/87 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 54/88 |
Monday
Mostly clear 54/83 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 55/82 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 55/83 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 56/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: For the first time this season, this model is showing a chance for above average precipitation all the way from the Pacific Northwest to the Mexico border. Even so, temperatures are projected to be somewhat above average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Sunday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through probably at least Wednesday of next week. I want to add a slight chance of showers to the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday due to a closed low forecast to form off the central coast. If this system is close enough, showers will definitely be likely over the mountain areas with a small risk over the valley floor. It’s much too early to talk percentages, just be aware that conditions next week have the potential to he unsettled.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%27%, Porterville, 82%/26%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.32, Parlier 1.08, Arvin 1.37, Porterville 1.13, Delano 1.12. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 72, Parlier 73, Arvin, 76, Porterville 80, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 81/53. Record Temperatures: 95/39
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.12 Monthly .,00 -.12
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.05. Monthly, -.00 -.05
Average Temperature this month: 74.5 +6.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:05, Sunset, 6:25, hours of daylight, 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 53 / 0.00 / MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 54 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 61 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 90 / 67 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 8 0.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 29 0.14 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 50 0.10 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 333 0.12 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 55 0.11 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.05 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.14 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 8 0.13 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.11 13.32
Next report: Friday, October 14
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.