October 14, 2022
A cut off low remains just west of San Diego this morning. The counterclockwise circulation around the low is creating an easterly flow aloft. It’s still possible scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur over the Kern County mountains and deserts, however the active portion of this storm is too far to the south to have much impact on the valley floor. The low will finally make its move into northern Baja Saturday. As it does, it will pick up monsoonal moisture rotating into southern California on Saturday into Sunday for more scattered showers just to our south. In the meantime, a trough of low pressure is approaching the west coast. The bottom portion will pinch off, forming a closed low off shore by Tuesday night. It appears this system will remain too far off shore to threaten precipitation. Most models show it moving through southern California and northern Baja by Friday of next week with only a minimal impact on central California.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. mostly clear through Wednesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/53/88/52/82 | Reedley 90/54/89/53/83 | Dinuba 88/52/88/52/81 |
| Porterville 90/54/89/53/82 | Lindsay 89/53/89/52/82 | Delano 89/55/89/54/83 |
| Bakersfield 88/65/88/65/81 | Taft 89/67/88/63/80 | Arvin 90/59/89/59/83 |
| Lamont 89/60/89/58/82 | Pixley 89/57/88/53/82 | Tulare 87/53/87/53/81 |
| Woodlake 88/54/88/53/81 | Hanford 89/56/89/53/82 | Orosi 88/54/89/52/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/83 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 56/86 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 57/87 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 55/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: For the first time this season, this model is showing a chance for above average precipitation all the way from the Pacific Northwest to the Mexico border. Even so, temperatures are projected to be somewhat above average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Monday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for a at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 77%28%, Porterville, 88%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.30, Parlier 1.07, Arvin 1.35, Porterville 1.11, Delano 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 72, Parlier 72, Arvin, 76, Porterville 80, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 80/53. Record Temperatures: 100/41
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.13, Monthly .,00 -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.06. Monthly, -.00 -.06
Average Temperature this month: 74.5 +6.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:06, Sunset, 6:22, hours of daylight, 11:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 87 / 64 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 87 / 66 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.18 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 8 0.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 25 0.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 45 0.11 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 308 0.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 46 0.13 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.15 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 7 0.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 13.32
Next report: Saturday, October 15
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.