October 18, 2022
Temperatures are up 2 to 5 degrees over yesterday morning’s readings, signaling the beginning of a warming trend. The trough of low pressure approaching the coast yesterday has been deflected by upper level high pressure over the western states. The trough actually morphed into a closed low well off the southern California coast. The high will dominate the pattern through Friday. Highs Wednesday through Saturday will climb to near the 90 degree mark during the heat of the day, but will cool off nicely during the evening hours with pleasant mornings. There is a major change on the horizon, however, which will come in the form of a low pressure system off the Gulf of Alaska. Most models showed this system moving into the Great Basin and northern Rockies yesterday. This morning’s models show it sinking further west into Nevada and northern and central California. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada late Saturday and Saturday night. If the system continues to take more of a westward path, we could even see some light showers over the valley floor, mainly from Fresno County north. For those of you waiting for a significant cooling trend, your wish will come through starting Sunday as highs fall into the mid to upper 70s. Some models project readings will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark Monday and Tuesday with lows well down into the 40s. It’s possible we could see a few river bottom type locations down into the mid to upper 30s Monday and Tuesday. Models show a big ridge following this system for dry weather for the remainder of next week.
Forecast: Other than some mid and high level clouds, skies will be mostly clear through Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness late Saturday leading to a small chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday. Mostly clear from Fresno County north Monday but remaining mostly cloudy in the south valley. Mostly clear Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/53/90/54/90 | Reedley 89/55/90/55/90 | Dinuba 87/53/89/54/90 |
| Porterville 88/53/89/54/90 | Lindsay 87/52/88/54/90 | Delano 88/55/89/57/90 |
| Bakersfield 87/64/88/65/90 | Taft 86/65/89/68/91 | Arvin 87/58/90/59/91 |
| Lamont 87/59/90/60/91 | Pixley 87/55/89/58/90 | Tulare 86/53/88/55/89 |
| Woodlake 87/52/88/54/89 | Hanford 88/54/90/55/91 | Orosi 86/53/89/54/89 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Saturday
Late pm showers 55/88 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 47/76 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 43/71 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: This model shows a broad trough of low pressure over the west for a chance of showers during this period. Temperatures will finally end up below average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Wednesday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: This morning’s models show some pretty significant differences from the last few days. Instead of a low moving into the Great Basin, most models this morning show the low moving into northern and central California Saturday and Sunday. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada late Saturday and Sunday with even a slight chance of showers on the valley floor, mainly Saturday night and Sunday morning. The chance of measurable rain from Fresno County north is around 20% with a lesser chance in the south valley. We’ll watch this closely over the next few days to determine how aggressive this storm may turn out to be. For now, it’s not a significant rain threat, but certainly worth monitoring.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%NA%, Porterville, NA%/NA%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.13, Parlier .96, Arvin 1.17, Porterville .98, Delano .98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 71, Parlier 71, Arvin, 75, Porterville 78, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 78/52. Record Temperatures: 95/36
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -24. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.21, Monthly .,00 -.21
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.08. Monthly, -.00 -.09
Average Temperature this month: 74.1 +6.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:10, Sunset, 6:17, hours of daylight, 11:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 62 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1625 / 78 / 60 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1645 / 77 / 59 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 7 0.27 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 5 0.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 17 0.24 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 31 0.16 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 190 0.21 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 32 0.19 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.09 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.20 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.09 38 0.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 10 0.21 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.19 13.32
Next report: Wednesday, October 18
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.