October 20, 2022
A closed low several hundred miles off the southern California coast continues to toss up some mid and high level clouds from time to time. They may be dense enough to have a minor impact somewhere in the valley. Even so, most locations will end up near 90 this afternoon. We’re still expecting a major pattern change this weekend. The jet stream will buckle over the Pacific Northwest then will develop a much colder low over Nevada and Utah. The western side of the low will slice right down the spine of the Sierra Nevada. Light precipitation will spread down the Sierra later Saturday with a minimal chance of a few light showers along mainly the east side of the valley along the foothills. The snow level with this system should lower to around 7,500 feet or so. Temperatures will take a nose dive with readings struggling to hit 70 Sunday and more so Monday. low temperatures early next week will dip into the mid to upper 30s in riverbed situations with widespread low to mid 40s elsewhere. Another trough will approach the coast by the middle of next week, but this one is weaker and will not change things as dramatically as the weekend storm. Yet another trough of low pressure will approach the coast around Halloween, so it appears late October will see pleasant daytime highs with crisp nights.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. A slight chance of light showers late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, mainly along the east side near the foothills. Becoming mostly clear Sunday through Monday from Fresno County north but remaining mostly cloudy in Kings, Tulare and Kern Counties through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/54/89/53/73 | Reedley 91/54/89/55/75 | Dinuba 89/53/89/52/73 |
| Porterville 91/52/90/53/76 | Lindsay 90/52/90/53/75 | Delano 91/55/90/55/74 |
| Bakersfield 90/64/90/61/74 | Taft 90/67/89/62/76 | Arvin 92/61/89/60/76 |
| Lamont 92/60/90/60/75 | Pixley 91/54/89/54/74 | Tulare 89/53/89/52/73 |
| Woodlake 90/55/89/54/74 | Hanford 92/55/89/54/74 | Orosi 89/52/88/53/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/74 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 41/69 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 43/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/77 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 43/75 |
Two Week Outlook: October 27 through November 2 This time around, this model isn’t giving a high chance of precipitation but doesn’t rule it out, especially over the northern portion of the district. There will be a couple of opportunities for showers over northern California so we’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast with near seasonal temperatures.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday night will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. stronger gusts are possible just about anywhere, but especially along the west side. Winds Saturday night will decrease to 10 to 15 mph, continuing through Sunday morning. Winds by Sunday evening will decrease and become light and variable overnight.
Rain: We are still on track for seeing a fast moving cold front which will sweep down the valley late Saturday into early Sunday. Light showers are a given for the Sierra Nevada, however there’s only a low chance of measurable rain on the valley floor and that will be along the east side along the foothills. If precipitation does happen to fall, less than .10 is anticipated. Dry weather will return by midday Sunday. Another weak trough will move through about Wednesday of next week but it will be a dry system with another trough passage along Halloween which also looks dry.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%35%, Porterville, 92%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.02, Parlier .92, Arvin 1.09, Porterville .95, Delano .93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 71, Parlier 71, Arvin, 74, Porterville 77, Delano 76. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/51. Record Temperatures: 94/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -30. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.25, Monthly .,00 -.25
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.11. Monthly, -.00 -.11
Average Temperature this month: 73.0 +6.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12, Sunset, 6:14, hours of daylight, 11:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 89 / 51 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 53 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 53 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 91 / 53 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / 57 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1644 / 87 / 62 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 6 0.32 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 4 0.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 14 0.29 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 26 0.19 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.41 164 0.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 41 0.22 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 27 0.11 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.22 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.10 36 0.28 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 8 0.26 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.23 13.32
Next report: Friday, October 21
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.