October 22, 2022
A rapidly moving dry cold front is moving down the valley this morning with considerable cloud cover and a few light showers over the southern Sierra Nevada. The associated trough of low pressure follows the cold front with much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop from near 90 yesterday into the mid 70s today and upper 60s and lower 70s Sunday. The real active portion of this storm will be over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region. Even so, temperatures will remain below average for several days. A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will follow Monday and Tuesday only to be replaced by a second trough of low pressure which will arrive Wednesday. Models show this to be very similar to the current system with light showers over the Sierra Nevada but remaining dry over the valley floor. The pattern for the remainder of the week is what we call progressive. That does not indicate liberalism, though. The next in this series will arrive next weekend. Models again point to dry weather over the valley floor. Even next week, models are showing a dominant trough of low pressure over the western states with periods of active weather moving into the Sierra Nevada and interior west but remaining dry on the valley floor.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with a slight chance of a few light showers in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning. Clearing from Fresno County north Sunday afternoon but remaining partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare Counties. Becoming mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Variable cloudiness Wednesday and Wednesday night. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/43/69/41/74 | Reedley 75/42/69/41/75 | Dinuba 73/40/68/41/74 |
| Porterville 75/44/70/40/74 | Lindsay 75/43/68/39/74 | Delano 74/43/68/42/74 |
| Bakersfield 75/50/67/46/72 | Taft 75/50/65/48/73 | Arvin 75/48/65/44/74 |
| Lamont 76/49/65/46/74 | Pixley 73/43/69/40/74 | Tulare 73/44/68/39/74 |
| Woodlake 74/44/69/39/74 | Hanford 75/44/69/40/75 | Orosi 73/44/69/38/74 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/75 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 42/73 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/72 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 44/75 |
Two Week Outlook: October 28 through November 3 This time around, this model isn’t giving a high chance of precipitation but doesn’t rule it out, especially over the northern portion of the district. There will be a couple of opportunities for showers over northern California so we’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast with near seasonal temperatures.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: As the day wears on, winds will become mainly out of the northwest, averaging 10 to 20 mph through tonight. Winds Sunday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, mainly along the Interstate Five corridor. Winds will diminish Sunday night, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10mph with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the overnight hours.
Rain: Doppler radar is showing some very light showers over Merced County, mainly over the Sierra Nevada foothills. Light rain and snow showers will spread down the Sierra with a slight chance of a few light showers over the valley floor, primarily along the base of the Sierra Nevada. A dry forecast is appropriate for Sunday and for the remainder of next week, although two colder type systems will invade the region during this time period. Most of their energy, though, will drive into the Great Basin with a few light showers over the Sierra. One system will arrive Wednesday and the second about Saturday of next week..
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%35%, Porterville, 92%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 10%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .96, Parlier .87, Arvin 1.08, Porterville .92, Delano .90. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 70, Parlier 70, Arvin, 74, Porterville 76, Delano 75. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 76/50. Record Temperatures: 92/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -39. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.30, Monthly .,00 -.30
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.14. Monthly, -.00 -.14
Average Temperature this month: 72.8 +6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, Sunset, 6:12, hours of daylight, 11:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 14 0.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.11 38 0.29 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 12 0.34 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 23 0.22 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.41 137 0.30 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 35 0.26 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 21 0.14 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.24 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.15 45 0.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 7 0.30 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.27 13.32
Next report: Monday, October 24
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.