October 29, 2022
Today is the last day of the pattern that has resulted in perfect weather. The back side of that ridge of high pressure is still overhead but is beginning to break down over the Pacific Northwest. Models still show a deep trough of low pressure digging southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska which will result in precipitation for central California with snow possibly down to 4,000 feet Wednesday night and Thursday. This system is slowing, however, so Tuesday and Tuesday night appear dry with periods of showers Wednesday into Thursday. The placement of the low will result in a strong jet stream over the valley Wednesday, creating a rain shadow along the west side of the valley and especially Kern County. Snow levels in the near by mountains will begin at around 7,500 feet but will lower to around 4,000 feet Wednesday night and Thursday. This early in the season you just don’t expect heavy amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada and that will ring true with this event. Six to eight inches is all that’s expected over the higher elevations in Mariposa County, sloping to just a few inches in Tulare County. Snow levels over Kern County could drop to near pass levels which is something to be aware of if you’re traveling to southern California Wednesday night and/or Thursday. A ridge of high pressure shows up on models beginning Thursday night and Friday, briefly creating a northerly flow, pumping in even colder air aloft Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s Friday and Saturday with even a slight chance of low 30s in riverbottom type locations, but I don’t anticipate a widespread frost situation. Dry weather will set up Thursday night and will continue for at least the next several days. The storm track will move into the Pacific Northwest through at least Tuesday of the following week with a chance of showers in mainly northern California a week from this coming Wednesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A slight chance of a few showers Tuesday night.. periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday morning. A slight chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Clearing Thursday night but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and parts of Tulare County. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/39/76/40/76/ | Reedley 75/40/76/41/76 | Dinuba 74/41/74/42/77 |
| Porterville 75/39/76/39/76 | Lindsay 75/38/75/40/76 | Delano 76/41/77/41/75 |
| Bakersfield 74/52/75/52/75 | Taft 74/52/74/53/77 | Arvin 77/48/46/47/76 |
| Lamont 77/47/76/47/75 | Pixley 75/41/76/42/77 | Tulare 74/39/75/40/75 |
| Woodlake 75/41/76/41/77 | Hanford 76/42/77/41/75 | Orosi 75/39/75/40/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Increasing clouds 44/77 |
Wednesday
Periods of showers 47/73 |
Thursday
AM showers’ 39/60 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 35/61 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 5 through November 11: This model indicates that there will be a greater than average risk of showers during this periods. The flow aloft will be mainly out of the northwest, resulting in below average temperatures.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday. winds late Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts from Fresno north.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. There’s a slight chance of showers Tuesday night, however models have moved up the main event from Wednesday to Thursday morning. Central California will be on the bottom side of a trough of low pressure, resulting in a west/southwest wind component aloft. This will create a rain shadow along the west side of the valley with heavier amounts of rain from generally Highway 99 east. Rainfall amounts along the west side will be generally at or less than .25.. This rain shadow is always the strongest over Kern County so much of the county will receive at or less than .20. The remainder of the east side of the valley could pick up between .25 and .33 with locally more from Fresno County north. There’s a slight chance of showers Thursday afternoon with dry weather returning Thursday night and lasting through next weekend. There’s another possible chance of showers the middle of week after this, but for now we’ll go with a dry forecast as there is too much conflict on models to be certain.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 83%/29%, Porterville, 96%/26%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: 100%, tomorrow 50%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .93, Parlier, .74, Arvin .94, Porterville, .77, Delano .75.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature
Stratford 67, Parlier 65, Arvin, 70, Porterville 69, Delano 69. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 73/48. Record Temperatures: 88/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 41 -26. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.47, Monthly .,00 -.47
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.23. Monthly, -.00 -.23
Average Temperature this month: 69.3 +4.1, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:21, Sunset, 6:04, hours of daylight, 10:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 75 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 76 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 80 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 77 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 49 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 76 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 3.86 666 0.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 2.80 609 0.46 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 1.73 320 0.54 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 158 0.36 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 1.27 270 0.47 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 1.10 275 0.40 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.94 409 0.23 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.65 203 0.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.11 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 2 1.62 318 0.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 1.57 327 0.48 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 1.29 287 0.45 1
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 73 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 3.86 702 0.55 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 2.80 636 0.44 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 1.73 339 0.51 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 168 0.34 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 1.27 289 0.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 1.10 289 0.38 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.94 448 0.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.65 210 0.31 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.11 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 2 1.62 338 0.48 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 1.57 349 0.45 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 1.29 307 0.42 13.32
Next report: Monday, October 31
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.