Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

October 31, 2022 report

The last day in October is also the last day of this weather pattern which has resulted in such beautiful fall weather. A developing low in the Gulf of Alaska will slide southward west of British Columbia by later tonight, building a trough of cold low pressure all the way down the California coast. It will begin to swing inland Tuesday night and Wednesday. The back side of this storm will still be overhead as late as Thursday morning. So even though the bulk of the precipitation from this event will occur Tuesday night, we’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast through Thursday morning. Behind this system is a cold air mass which, in theory, will bring us areas of frost, mainly Friday morning. But if skies clear in a timely manner, some low thirties are possible Thursday morning. This air mass does not appear cold enough for widespread frost, but I do believe riverbottom type locations could drop to 28 to 30 Friday morning, with widespread mid 30s.. moderation will occur Saturday night and beyond.  A flat zone of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Friday morning and will gain control of the overall pattern through this weekend and into next week. the main storm track will move from west to east into the Pacific Northwest, clipping the northernmost counties of California. Temperatures will warm from the upper 50s Friday to near 70 by Monday. by the way, NOAA has issued its winter outlook. It calls for above average temperatures for most of northern California this winter and below average precipitation from roughly Merced County southward with near average precip for most of northern California.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday morning. A slight chance of showers late Tuesday afternoon. Showers likely Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday into early Thursday. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon but remain mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Friday through Monday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 75/43/70/46/61 Reedley 76/42/70/43/62 Dinuba 74/42/70/43/61
Porterville 77/43/71/43/62 Lindsay 76/41/69/42/62 Delano 77/43/71/42/61
Bakersfield 76/52/71/50/60 Taft 75/53/71/47/57 Arvin 77/47/71/44/62
Lamont 76/48/71/47/60 Pixley 76/44/71/45/62 Tulare 74/43/69/43/60
Woodlake 75/43/71/44/60 Hanford 76/43/70/43/62 Orosi 74/43/69/44/61

 

Seven Day Forecast

Thursday

AM showers possible

37/60

Friday

Mostly clear

33/57

Saturday

Mostly clear

36/64

Sunday

Mostly clear

40/68

Monday

Partly cloudy

43/71

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 7 through November 13: This model shows a pattern which would be somewhat favorable for storms to move into  northern California with central California being on its southern fringe. Expect temperatures to be below average.

 

November:  Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.

 

November, December, January:  The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be generally at or less than 10 mph through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds later Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 8 to 15 mph Wednesday night. Generally light winds will return Thursday through Friday

 

Rain: It now appears we will remain dry through at least most of Tuesday, although a small chance of light showers is appropriate for the forecast for late Tuesday afternoon. The chance of rain will increase as the night wears on Tuesday night with the highest probability being between midnight and sunrise. Models do show the back side of the low remaining overhead Wednesday and Wednesday night so we’ll add a chance of showers to the forecast for that period. Dry weather will return Thursday and beyond.

 

This system is by no means the storm of the century as generally light amounts can be anticipated. As the jet stream rounds the bottom of the trough and moves through central California, a rain shadow will form along the west side and in Kern County. Generally, along the eastern flank of the valley and east of Highway 99, a tenth to a quarter of an inch can be expected for this event. Most locations along the west side and in Kern County can expect from generally .15 down to possibly just a few hundredths.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

 

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/30%, Porterville, 93%/30%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: 70%, tomorrow 30%.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford,  .88, Parlier, .74, Arvin .92, Porterville, .78, Delano .74.

Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature

Stratford 66, Parlier 63, Arvin, 68, Porterville 67, Delano 67. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 72/47. Record Temperatures: 90/32

Heating Degree Days This Season.  41 -26. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .00  -.53,  Monthly  .,00 -.53

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .00 or -.26.  Monthly,  -.00 -.26

Average Temperature this month: 69.3 +4.1, Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, ,  Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,.  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise 7:23, Sunset, 6:02, hours of daylight, 10:41

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  76 /  40 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  76 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  76 /  49 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  76 /  40 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  78 /  42 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  75 /  49 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  75 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1626 /  75 /  47 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  77 /  44 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  74 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  47 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.      %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    3.86   594     0.65    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    2.80   538     0.52    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    1.73   284     0.61    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.57   139     0.41    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    1.27   240     0.53    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    1.10   250     0.44     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.94   362     0.26     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.65   191     0.34     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.00     0       M     M     0.12     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    0.01     2    1.62   284     0.57    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    1.57   296     0.53    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00       T     0    1.29   253     0.51    13.32

Next report: October 31 afternoon

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.