November 5, 2022 afternoon report

November 5, 2022

I’m watching with great interest an atmospheric river of air currently moving from west to east across southern Oregon and the northernmost counties of California. A powerful low will slowly drop southward into the Pacific Northwest then will carve out a trough of low pressure which will eventually sink all the way into southern California. By Monday evening, a 150 mph jet stream will be slamming central California with copious amounts of precipitation in the form of rain and snow over the Sierra Nevada. As much as 4 feet of new snow is possible above 7,000 feet with as much as 2 to 4 inches in the foothills. It appears the lifting effect along the Sierra Nevada are just perfect for a major weather event. Rainfall amounts in the valley are discussed below in the rainfall discussion.

By early Tuesday, another disturbance will rotate around the southern flank of the low and into central and southern California. The main body of low pressure will be overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing in a cold pool of air overhead. Snow levels which initially will start out at 9,000 feet will lower during the course of this event, dropping all the way down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Models have backed off on the initial start of the rain, but that’s not uncommon with major Pacific storms with rain now slated to begin later Sunday night. It now appears that showers will continue well into Wednesday then finally end Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the west Thursday as the storm track migrates northward into the water logged Pacific Northwest.

Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight and Sunday. There will be a minimal chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Sunday. Rain will move slowly down the valley Sunday night, possibly reaching as far south as Fresno County after midnight. Rain Monday, possibly locally heavy during the afternoon and evening. Rain continuing at times Monday night and Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, ending Wednesday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Friday through Saturday with patchy night and morning fog.

Short Term:

Madera 48/66/51/61	Reedley 49/67/52/61	Dinuba 49/66/51/60
Porterville 47/67/51/62	Lindsay 46/66/50/60	Delano 48/67/51/62
Bakersfield 52/67/55/62	Taft 53/69/54/62	Arvin 49/68/53/63
Lamont 47/68/52/62	Pixley 48/66/51/61	Tulare 48/65/50/61
Woodlake 46/65/50/60	Hanford 50/67/52/62	Orosi 47/66/51/61

Wind Discussion: Winds today and tonight will be generally out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Stronger gusts are possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Sunday night and Monday will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.

Rain: An atmospheric river of air is wrapped around the bottom side of a big low parked off the Washington coast. This very wet system will sag southward during the next 72 hours with a minimal chance of light showers Sunday afternoon. The chance of rain will increase Sunday night, especially after midnight, with rain continuing Monday through Tuesday at times. This AR will be overhead Monday through Monday night, so locally heavy rain is possible in the valley along with copious amounts of rain and snow along the Sierra Nevada. The precipitation pattern will become more showery Tuesday afternoon and evening with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Most models show the shower machine continuing well into Wednesday with dry weather returning Wednesday night. Expect dry conditions from Wednesday night on.

Rainfall amounts on the valley floor will tally up to well over an inch, and up to two inches in spots, generally east of Highway 99. The west side will be fighting the typical rain shadow, however with so much moisture between .50 and 1.50 is anticipated. The valley portion of Kern County should pick up between .50 and .75. These estimates are for Sunday night through Wednesday.

Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Wednesday morning. The air mass which will settle onto the valley floor after Wednesday is cold, but not excessively so. Areas that do observe clear skies could potentially fall into the low to mid 30s Thursday and Friday mornings with a minimal amount of moderation Saturday. On Thursday morning, it’s quite possible residual upslope clouds will cover Kern County and much of Tulare County. If cloud cover does play a role, lows there would only fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. the air mass will slowly moderate next weekend and the following week. some places may actually deal with fog, although it’s fairly early in the season. If it does form, there won’t be enough to have much effect on temperatures.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 6 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.