November 6, 2022
A magnificent storm is off the southern British Columbia coast this morning and is moving southward where it will take a position just off the Washington coast Monday. the jet stream is rapidly wrapping around the southern flank of this storm and will move into northern California Monday. by Monday night, a strong trough of low pressure will dig southward into southern California while the center of the cold core low will drop southward into northern California late Monday and over central California Tuesday. That means the coldest and most unstable portion of this event will be right overhead Tuesday with numerous showers and, assuming there are breaks in the overcast, isolated thunderstorms with small hail cannot be ruled out. Frequently, strong winter storms slow down despite what models say, and that is the case this time around. The start time of the precipitation will be later, but it also means Wednesday will be an active day. Models still show generous amounts of precipitation along with 2 to 4 feet of new snow over the higher elevations and 2 to 4 inches of rain along the foothills. Between 1 and 2 inches of precipitation is anticipated along the east side of the valley with somewhat lesser amounts along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. The freezing level is currently is about 10,000 feet, so the snow level will initially be very high. However, when the cold core low moves overhead, the snow level will drop to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. As the low exits stage right late Wednesday night, areas of frost will be possible Thursday through Saturday mornings, which is discussed below. Dry weather can be anticipated Thursday through next weekend, although a weak system will move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California next Saturday. Overall, the medium range outlook is for dry conditions with below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today. Cloudy tonight with a chance of showers after midnight. Rain Monday, turning to showers Monday night. Rain Monday night and Tuesday morning. Showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. A chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, possibly with small hail. Showers Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy Thursday morning. Becoming mostly clear Thursday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/52/61/49/58 | Reedley 66/50/62/48/61 | Dinuba 67/52/62/48/62 |
| Porterville 68/52/63/49/62 | Lindsay 67/50/61/47/61 | Delano 69/53/61/49/60 |
| Bakersfield 69/56/62/52/60 | Taft 68/55/61/51/62 | Arvin 70/54/62/50/61 |
| Lamont 69/54/60/51/61 | Pixley 68/51/62/48/62 | Tulare 66/50/61/48/60 |
| Woodlake 67/51/61/47/60 | Hanford 67/51/60/47/61 | Orosi 67/51/62/47/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Showers 45/62 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/57 |
Friday
Patchy fog 35/59 |
Saturday
Patchy fog 34/60 |
Sunday
Patchy fog 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 13 through November 19 This model does not sway either way as far as wet or dry conditions are concerned. It does have above average precip for northern California, so it’s possible we could see showers sometime during this period. Temperatures over much of the western US will be below average, including central California.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph this evening with stronger gusts. Winds Monday morning will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph then will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Wednesday, winds will be variable to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms.
Rain: It’s not uncommon to see models get ahead of themselves on the timing of strong winter storms and that is the case for this event. We may get through most of the night tonight with no precipitation. However, this also pushes back the timing of the end of the event, which is now slated for Wednesday evening. Rain will spread down the valley late tonight and Monday morning with numerous showers Monday afternoon and night. Rain will again spread down the valley Tuesday with numerous showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by small hail.
Rainfall amounts along the eastern flank of the valley from roughly Highway 99 east will range between 1.00 and 1.50 between Monday and Wednesday. Rainfall along the west side of the valley is a tougher call due to rainshadows, but with some luck, anywhere between .50 and 1.00. The valley portion of Kern County can expect between .50 and .75.
Dry weather will return Thursday and will continue through next weekend. It’s a bit of a dicey call for Saturday, however, as a low will spread showers over northern California. For now, though, it looks like rain will stay north of our region. Models for week after next also look dry.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 through Wednesday morning. Models have been fairly consistent for Thursday through Saturday mornings. They pick out a number of 36 for Porterville Wednesday morning, so it appears widespread low to mid 30s will prevail with coldest locations possibly dipping into the upper 20s.
For Thursday morning, the forecast is a bit trickier due to upsloping in the eastern and southern sectors of the valley. If upsloping, or where upsloping, occurs, upper 30s to lower 40s will be likely. Clouds will not be an issue for Friday and Saturday mornings with cloud free areas down into the low to mid 30s.
Slow modification will begin Sunday and last indefinitely. Fog may be a bit of a wild card as a weak inversion develops. It’s too early in the season for widespread fog, but pockets of dense fog are likely, especially towards the center of the valley.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/39% Porterville, 100%/43%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 0%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .62 Parlier 55 Arvin 64 Porterville 58 Delano 61
Tomorrow:70.
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 70% Friday Bakersfield 30% today 80% Friday,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 58, Arvin 64, Porterville 62, Delano 63 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45 Record Temperatures: 87/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 128 -6 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .14 Ave .68 Monthly .13
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .18 Ave .35 Monthly: -.00 -.33
Average Temperature This Month: 52.0 -6.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 21, Parlier 43, Arvin 16 , Belridge 23, Shafter 20, Stratford 34, Delano 21, Porterville 24 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:29, Sunset, 4:56, hours of daylight, 10:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 54 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 68 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.27 31 3.88 446 0.87 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.31 46 2.85 419 0.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.37 46 1.74 217 0.80 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.17 31 0.57 104 0.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.14 21 1.27 187 0.68 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 1.10 200 0.55 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.27 77 0.94 269 0.35 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 167 0.39 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 M M 0.13 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 32 1.68 224 0.75 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.05 7 1.57 231 0.68 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 1 1.29 187 0.69 13.32
Next report: November 5 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.