November 5, 2022
This upcoming storm system is more of a big event than it is a storm. This could turn out to be one of the biggest storms of the rainfall season. For today and tonight, a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California will keep us dry with pleasant afternoon temperatures. Currently, a large low pressure system is located just west of British Columbia. This storm will slowly move southward parallel to the coast, parking off the Washington coast by Sunday night. As it moves southward, it will dig a trough of low pressure all the way into southern California. The winds aloft will be powerful and perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada due to the winds aloft and lift by the mountains. Large amounts of rain and snow will occur up and down the Sierra Nevada. As much as 4 to 6 inches of water equivalent will fall over the foothills and higher mountains, resulting in 2 to 4 feet of new snow. Snow levels will start out at 9,000 feet, slowly coming down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will be a very slow moving system, so precipitation will continue through Tuesday night with showers possibly lasting well into Wednesday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few embedded thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. There’s a chance of showers Sunday from mainly Fresno County north then rain will spread southward Sunday night, continuing Monday through Tuesday, breaking off into showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Upper level high pressure will begin to push in from the west beginning Wednesday night, shoving the storm track back up into the Pacific Northwest for dry weather Thursday and through at least next weekend.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of a few showers from mainly Fresno County north. Rain spreading southward Sunday night. Rain Monday through Tuesday, locally heavy at times. Showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday but remaining mostly cloudy Thursday morning in Kern County and possibly Tulare County. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/48/67/51/60 | Reedley 66/47/66/51/60 | Dinuba 65/47/66/50/59 |
| Porterville 66/48/67/50/60 | Lindsay 65/47/67/50/61 | Delano 65/48/67/51/61 |
| Bakersfield 65/52/67/55/59 | Taft 64/54/69/54/60 | Arvin 67/51/66/52/60 |
| Lamont 67/52/67/52/61 | Pixley 65/47/67/50/61 | Tulare 64/46/67/50/59 |
| Woodlake 65/46/67/50/60 | Hanford 67/49/66/51/61 | Orosi 64/46/67/51/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Rain 48/61 |
Wednesday
AM showers 40/57 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 34/56 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 12 through November 18 This model does not sway either way as far as wet or dry conditions are concerned. It does have above average precip for northern California, so it’s possible we could see showers sometime during this period. Temperatures over much of the western US will be below average, including central California.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds today and tonight will be generally out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Stronger gusts are possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Sunday night and Monday will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through tonight. A few showers may reach into Fresno County north Sunday. Rain will spread down the valley Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday, breaking off into showers later Tuesday night and Wednesday. This event will be a huge weather maker with 4 to 6 inches of rain and 2 to 4 feet of new snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. On the valley floor, generally east of Highway 99, between 1 and 1.50 inches of rain are possible. Even though the west side will be under a rain shadow, the dynamics of the midi and upper levels of the atmosphere are such that anywhere from .50 to 1 inch is possible. Over the valley portion of Kern County, anywhere from .50 to .75 is possible. This is all from Sunday night through Wednesday. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue for what appears to be at least a week if not longer.
Frost: All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Wednesday morning. The air mass behind this upcoming storm event will be cold. Depending on cloud cover and other parameters, it appears widespread low to mid 30s will occur again Thursday and Friday and, to a lesser extent, Saturday with a chance of colder river bottom type locations dropping into the upper 20s. temperatures will probably be similar to what we experienced earlier this week. moderation will occur next weekend, slowly dragging temperatures above freezing at most locations by Sunday morning.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/39% Porterville, 100%/46%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to upper 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .66 Parlier .57 Arvin 64 Porterville 60 Delano 63
Tomorrow:70.
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 59, Arvin 65, Porterville 63, Delano 63 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/45 Record Temperatures: 90/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 114 -0.0 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .14 Ave .66 Monthly .13 -.66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .18 Ave .33 Monthly: -.00 -.33
Average Temperature This Month: 52.3 -6.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 12, Parlier 20, Arvin 6 , Belridge 11, Shafter 9, Stratford 24, Delano 10, Porterville 11 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:28, Sunset, 4:57, hours of daylight, 10:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 62 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 63 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 62 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.27 33 3.88 467 0.83 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.31 48 2.85 438 0.65 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.37 48 1.74 226 0.77 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.17 32 0.57 108 0.53 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.14 21 1.27 192 0.66 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 1.10 208 0.53 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.27 82 0.94 285 0.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 171 0.38 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 M M 0.13 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 33 1.68 233 0.72 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.05 8 1.57 242 0.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 2 1.29 195 0.66 13.32
Next report: November 5 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.