November 6, 2022
The first phase of the upcoming storm has spread precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and northwest California. The main area of low pressure is just northwest of Washington state. Rain will spread over the northern half of the valley Sunday night and early Monday, probably nearing Fresno County by about 8:00am Monday, spreading slowly southward during the day. Quantitative precipitation estimates from blended model information this afternoon forecasts 1.73 inches of rain for Porterville Monday through Tuesday night. I must say I’m very confident in this model but it’s rare for a single event to dump an inch and three quarters. Models are actually upping the precipitation estimates for the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County southward to the Kern County line. We’ll go ahead and stick with the prior estimates this afternoon as there has been a distinct trend over the past several days. The rain Monday will turn to showers Monday night then another surge of energy will move in Tuesday morning with more rain, breaking off into numerous showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. If we get some breaks in the overcast, isolated thunderstorms are a distinct possibility Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Any thunderstorm activity would be accompanied by small hail and gusty winds. Showers will taper off late Wednesday night with dry weather Thursday and beyond. The air mass that will plunge in behind this storm is cold, but not critical. Where skies clear Thursday morning, low to mid 30s are likely with those coldest low spots possibly chilling into the upper 20s for short durations. Thursday morning’s conditions will be chaotic, however, due to upslope clouds and winds as well as other parameters. Friday and Saturday will likely be easier to forecast, although a weak weather system will affect northern California Saturday which could throw some clouds over the area Saturday morning. Daytime temperatures will certainly warm over the weekend and beyond as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of showers from Merced north by daybreak. Rain spreading down the valley Monday morning, turning to showers later Monday afternoon. Rain again Monday night and Tuesday morning, turning to showers Tuesday night through Wednesday. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Clearing Thursday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Thursday night through Friday. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will be extremely mild, ranging in the low to mid 50s. Highs Monday will top out in the low to mid 60s. lows Monday night will cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs Tuesday will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph this evening with stronger gusts. Winds Monday morning will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph then will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Wednesday, winds will be variable to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms.
Next report: November 7 morning
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