November 8, 2022
Widespread precipitation is continuing in the south valley at this hour while further north the precipitation has broken into scattered showers. All this rain today was just ahead of an occluded frontal system now draped across the eastern San Joaquin Valley. It will soon move into the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation has been heavy with anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain in the foothills and mountains from Fresno County north and 1 to 2 inches over the mountainous terrain of Tulare County. There are breaks in the overcast along the west side of the valley and they may be enough to trigger some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Periods of showers will continue tonight and Wednesday morning. The current center of circulation is over the Bay Area and is slowly moving eastward. The backside of the storm should clear the Sierra by mid to late morning Wednesday, drawing all this action to an abrupt halt.
As soon as the back side moves into Nevada, a brief northerly flow will inject a relatively cold air mass into the valley and areas of frost will no doubt occur Thursday through Saturday mornings, although it’s possible cloud cover from a weak off shore system could moderate temperatures over the weekend.
The medium range outlook is quite muddy at this hour, no pun intended, as there is little model continuity so guidance is of little help. If there’s one factor on models that does look strong it’s the fact that temperatures will remain below seasonal averages for the remainder of the week and well into next week.
Forecast: Periods of showers into Wednesday morning with a chance of isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/58/32/58 | Reedley 43/59/33/58 | Dinuba 42/57/32/57 |
| Porterville 43/59/33/57 | Lindsay 42/58/31/58 | Delano 44/58/34/58 |
| Bakersfield 48/57/39/57 | Taft 45/56/41/56 | Arvin 44/58/36/58 |
| Lamont 42/59/35/58 | Pixley 43/58/33/58 | Tulare 42/57/32/58 |
| Woodlake 42/57/32/57 | Hanford 44/59/34/58 | Orosi 42/57/33/58 |
Wind Discussion: Winds for a time this evening will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds later this evening into the early morning hours will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Wednesday will continue to be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph, decreasing Wednesday evening. Winds Thursday through Friday will be variable to no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts as of midday: Bakersfield .06, Stratford .37, Lemoore .67, Hanford .56, Tulare .54, Visalia .53, Exeter .41, Del Rey .63, Clovis .82, Fresno .50, Merced .76. A few locations in the mountains are: Bass Lake 3.51, Chilkout Meadow 3.88, and Springville 1.30.
With the exception of the south valley, the heaviest precipitation is now behind us. Even so, periods of showers will continue tonight with a chance of isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Showers will continue into Wednesday morning but should be over by midday. It now appears dry weather will prevail for the next week or so as, even though models are inconsistent, the two weather systems we’ve discussed in earlier reports appear to be too weak for precipitation in central California.
Frost: For several days now, models have been showing temperatures for Thursday and Friday mornings chilling into the mid 30s. With this in mind, it does look like low to mid 30s are likely Thursday, Friday, and Saturday mornings. It’s possible upslopes clouds could hold temperatures up in the eastern and southern portions of the valley, mainly in Kern and Tulare Counties. Locations under a cloud deck would certainly remain above freezing. Readings in the very coldest locales may dip into the upper 20s for short durations. However, this air mass is not cold enough to be dangerous. Models for next week and the week after are in a state of war with one another. One thing they do agree upon is that temperatures will remain somewhat below average, but nothing critical is on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 9 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.