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Forecast

November 9, 2022 report

November 9, 2022

A few scattered showers remain over the valley floor but, by and large, the lion’s share of the activity has moved into the mountain areas. Once the daytime heating effect gets revved up, a few more showers could develop. But, for all practical purposes, this event is just about over. A brief northerly flow is in place behind the exiting low which is now centered near northeast Nevada. As you might expect, the air mass is cold. The balloon sounding above Vandenburg AFB a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 4,600 feet while over Oakland, the sounding was 4,200 feet. This means snow is down to about 3,600 feet or so.

 

As the low pulls off, upslope clouds will bank up against the north facing slow of the Tehachapi Mountains, so some cloud cover will remain in the south valley through Thursday morning. Otherwise, a weak ridge will build in behind the exiting storm for dry weather probably through the weekend. I hedge a little bit as a weak low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska could produce light showers as far south as Fresno County Saturday and Saturday night. However, this is now being portrayed as more of an inside slider. In other words, it’s projected to move more into Nevada as opposed to northern California.

 

It had appeared another low would affect northern California late Sunday night and Monday, however it too will drop into the Great Basin, leaving central California dry. It will create somewhat of an omega configuration, turning winds aloft out of the northeast, resulting in a continuation of below average temperatures through much of next week.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers, mainly this morning. Partly cloudy tonight but maybe mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday night with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Saturday with a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 58/32/58/31/60 Reedley 59/33/58/32/59 Dinuba 58/32/58/31/58
Porterville 59/33/59/32/60 Lindsay 58/32/59/31/59 Delano 59/33/59/32/61
Bakersfield 58/40/58/39/61 Taft 57/40/54/41/61 Arvin 58/35/59/34/61
Lamont 60/34/58/34/61 Pixley 58/33/58/32/61 Tulare 57/32/58/31/60
Woodlake 58/32/59/32/60 Hanford 58/34/58/33/61 Orosi 58/32/59/31/59

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

36/61

Sunday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

36/61

Monday

Mostly clear

34/59

Tuesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

35/63

Wednesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

35/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 15 through November 21: This model shows a rather chilly northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures. It also indicates above average precipitation over the northern half of California and doesn’t rule out a chance of showers further south.

 

November:  As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.

 

November, December, January:  If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Saturday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: There’s a chance of scattered showers this morning, however the activity will be widely scattered. Daytime heating may spawn a few more showers this afternoon, but by and large this event is over. Dry weather can be expected tonight and probably for the remainder of the week, however a deep trough will be moving out of the Gull of Alaska. The southern portion will form a low pressure system. It now looks as though this system will move through Nevada rather than northern California. Even so, we’ll continue with a forecast of possible light showers Saturday and Saturday night. Any amounts will be generally less than .10. Dry weather will return Sunday and will continue through at least the middle of next week, if not beyond.

 

Frost:  We are still on track for widespread low to mid 30s tonight with a small chance of upper 20s in those coldest locations that remain mostly clear. The air mass is quite cold for this early in the  season. The freezing level above Vandenburg and Oakland is between 4,000 and 5,000 feet, indicating a pool of cold air is above the valley floor. Cloud cover will be the biggest wild card tonight with even some pockets of fog here and there, entering the forecast picture. Even so we’ll lean low a bit. Model information spits out a temperature of 36 for Porterville tonight and again for Thursday night/Friday morning. We may have a string of nights with temperatures in the low to mid 30s with the possible exception of Saturday morning when cloud cover from a northern California system may creep into the picture. This appears to be a beneficial pattern, if anything, one in which we can rack up some chilling hours and increase the sugar content of citrus. We’re going to have to keep a close eye on the pattern for next week as a couple of models show an arctic system heading into the interior west. Models are by no means solidi on this, but it is something to watch.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

33

McFarland

31

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

32

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

33

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/54%  Porterville, 99%/59%

Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid to mid 40s.   Kern:  Low to mid 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield:  Today 30% tomorrow 60%

ET for the past seven days: Stratford 48 Parlier 40 Arvin 54  Porterville 44 Delano 47

Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 70%  Friday Bakersfield 30% today 80% Friday,

Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 58, Arvin 63, Porterville 61, Delano 61  *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 68/44  Record Temperatures: 85/33

Heating Degree Days This Season.  163  +15 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  .65, 82%  of average  Monthly  .65

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .51,  127%  of average   Monthly:  .51

Average Temperature This Month: 53.5  -4.9  Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 28, Parlier 41,  Arvin 24 , Belridge 32, Shafter 28, Stratford 42,  Delano  36,  Porterville 39  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise 6:32, Sunset, 4:53, hours of daylight, 10:23

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  57 /  42 /  0.41 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  57 /  46 /  0.26 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  56 /  46 /  0.17 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  56 /  41 /  0.27 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  59 /  38 /  0.21 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  69 /  47 /  0.31 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  61 /  43 /  0.56 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  66 /  45 /  0.44 /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.      %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.37    1.16   116    3.95   395     1.00    13.45

MODESTO                       0.58    1.15   149    2.95   383     0.77    12.27

MERCED                        0.36    0.94   104    1.76   196     0.90    11.80

MADERA                        0.26    0.50    79    0.58    92     0.63    10.79

FRESNO                        0.15    0.63    82    1.31   170     0.77    10.99

HANFORD                       0.27    0.59    97    1.17   192     0.61     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.22    0.51   127    0.94   235     0.40     6.36

BISHOP                        0.37    0.38    90    0.65   155     0.42     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP                  M       T     0       M     M     0.14     2.20

SALINAS                          M    0.50    58    1.69   197     0.86    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      M       M     M       M     M        M    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.77    0.85   108    1.29   163     0.79    13.32

 

Next report: November 9 afternoon

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.