November 15, 2022
Yet another chilly morning with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s throughout the citrus belt. Skies are mostly clear and there is less fog this morning than we’ve seen for a while. A very weak upper low is situated just off the central coast this morning and is slowly moving southward. This feature will eventually open up into a wave of low pressure and will move inland through northern Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. In the meantime, upper level high pressure will build northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. At the surface barometric pressure is higher over the Great Basin than off shore southern California, creating a Santa Ana wind configuration. Typically, this pattern leaves the valley unscathed, although drier air could mix down to the surface, lowering dew points. Basically, this pattern will continue into the weekend. By Sunday and Monday, the northern portion of the high will give way, replacing the north/northeast flow currently underway, replacing it with a north/northwest flow. This will lead to a minor warming trend early next week.
Forecast: Areas of late night and morning fog, mainly towards the center and west side of the valley. Otherwise it will be mostly clear through Friday. The same for the remainder of the week through Tuesday: hazy night and morning fog with some afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/31/64/31/64 | Reedley 64/32/64/31/64 | Dinuba 62/30/34/31/63 |
| Porterville 63/31/64/32/64 | Lindsay 63/30/64/31/63 | Delano 63/32/64/32/63 |
| Bakersfield 63/40/64/41/64 | Taft 62/42/64/43/65 | Arvin 64/34/64/33/64 |
| Lamont 63/35/64/35/65 | Pixley 63/32/64/33/65 | Tulare 63/31/64/31/63 |
| Woodlake 62/32/63/32/63 | Hanford 64/42/64/43/64 | Orosi 62/31/62/31/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Am fog/pm sun 33/65 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 32/64 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 33/65 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 34/66 |
Tuesday
Am fog/pm sun 34/66 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through November 27: This model reverts us back into somewhat above average temperatures during this period. The risk of rain during this time frame appears to be pretty high, especially for northern California.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Friday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: Temperatures again this morning are in the low to mid 30s at most locations. Coldest I could find as of 5:30am were 30 degrees at Lindsay and 31 at Madera. The only wild card in tonight’s forecast is the Santa ana wind configuration which typically leaves the valley pretty much unscathed. It has, though, on occasion, mixed down drier air, lowering dew points. We’ll have to monitor dew points this afternoon to see if any changes need to be made to the forecast.
Widespread low to mid 30s can be expected tonight and each night through the weekend with the very coldest locations dipping into the upper 20s for short durations.
The inversion tonight will be fairly decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
A pattern change will begin early next week which will bring a north/northwest flow over central California, ending the dominant north/northeast flow. The north/northwest flow might nudge dew points up a tad. However, for now the forecast will go with the status quo until we get a system strong enough to break the inversion. As of now, that is not on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Marcopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/46% Porterville, 100%/42%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 48 Parlier 39 Arvin 48 Porterville 45 Delano 45
Soil temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 55, Arvin 60, Porterville 56, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 90% today 90% Bakersfield 90% today 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 61, Porterville 58, Delano 56 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/43 Record Temperatures: 79/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 261 +50 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 70% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 135% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.7 -5.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 77, Parlier 108, Arvin 58 , Belridge 89, Shafter 79, Stratford 114, Delano 88, Porterville 100 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:38, Sunset, 4:49, hours of daylight, 10:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
Max Min 24-Hr Snow
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 35 / /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 100 4.32 348 1.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 125 3.06 322 0.95 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 91 1.99 183 1.09 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 63 0.65 81 0.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 70 1.57 167 0.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 82 1.24 172 0.72 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 135 0.95 194 0.49 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 96 0.78 163 0.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 135 2.19 203 1.08 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 78 1.58 174 0.91 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 99 1.40 140 1.00 13.32
Next report: November 15 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.