November 16, 2022
Santa Ana winds continue to buffet the Kern County mountains. These winds have been leaking downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains all day. At the bottom of the Grapevine, winds were sustained at 20 mph, gusting to 35 as of noon. At the top of the Grapevine, winds are out of the northeast at 22 mph, gusting to 44. The Kern County portion of the valley has warmed in response. As of noon, Bakersfield was reporting 64 degrees, 8 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, while dew points in Kern County have dipped down into the 30s. Elsewhere, dewpoints and temperatures are similar to yesterday’s readings. Barometric pressure remains higher over the Great Basin than they are off the southern California coast, meaning Santa Ana winds will continue tonight and Thursday over the Grapevine and possibly even in the extreme south valley.
Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a massive high is in place, stretching from the eastern Pacific northward all the way into the Yukon Territory of Canada. Modified arctic air continues to plunge southeastward into the Rocky Mountain region then into the Midwest. This pattern will continue through the weekend.
There are some hints of a change about Wednesday of next week. as the high breaks down, it will allow a storm system into northern California. Models naturally vary a great deal on this but for now it appears precipitation will move no further south than Mariposa and Merced Counties. After that, we’ll go right back into a dry pattern, although some models are showing rain trying to move into central California the last few days of the month.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Saturday. Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds continuing, mainly up the center of the valley, with hazy afternoon sunshine Saturday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/65/32/63 | Reedley 32/66/33/62 | Dinuba 31/65/32/62 |
| Porterville 32/66/32/63 | Lindsay 31/64/31/61 | Delano 33/65/32/62 |
| Bakersfield 41/67/42/63 | Taft 45/65/45/61 | Arvin 37/66/37/62 |
| Lamont 37/65/35/62 | Pixley 32/65/32/61 | Tulare 31/64/31/61 |
| Woodlake 32/65/32/62 | Hanford 33/65/32/62 | Orosi 31/64/32/62 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Also, expect locally strong, gusty winds to near 40 mph at times near the base of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere near the base of the Tehachapi. These winds will slowly decrease as pressure patterns between the interior and the coast begin to relax. Winds later tonight through Saturday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Dew points north of Tulare County are still in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Downslope Santa Ana winds in Kern County have lowered dew points there into the low to mid 30s. However, the air mass in Kern County is mixing because of these winds, counterbalancing the chance of frost. Most locations will continue to be in the low to mid 30s. Locations near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains will likely be above freezing due to winds. Coldest lows tonight north of Kern County will chill into the lower 30s with the coldest low lying locations touching with the upper 20s briefly. In Kern County, it would be wise to monitor temperatures tonight. If the winds die off, temperatures will fall to near freezing and possibly into t he upper 20s if dew points remain low. We’re still not even close to getting out of this pattern. models do show a change around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week which may bring rain to northern California and possibly at least raise dew points back to kinder and gentler levels.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
Af |
Marcopa
32 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 17 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.