Forecast

November 27, 2022 afternoon report

November 27, 2022

Temperatures and dewpoints at midday are running comparable to 24 hours ago. Most locations have warmed into the low to mid 60s with dew points in the low to mid 30s. Currently, a series of disturbances are running roughshod through the Pacific Northwest then southeastward into the Great Basin, bypassing California. The strongest in this series will move into the Great Basin Tuesday. This particular system is quite cold as is the air mass behind it which will result in some chilly overnight low temperatures Wednesday and possibly Thursday mornings. They could potentially be the coldest of the year, so far will be recorded Thursday morning unless something unforeseen occurs. More in the frost section below.

 

It still appears we will begin an active pattern beginning Thursday night as two cold Pacific storms move through. The first will move through as a cold trough Friday, spreading showers over the entire district. The second will be a coastal hugger, meaning the center of circulation will drop southward just off shore, causing bands of showers to pinwheel inland. Also, a pineapple connection looks likely with the first storm as the jet stream flanks from southwest to  northeast, slamming northern California first then moving southeastward into central California sometime Sunday. This pattern has historically been generous rain makers, especially along the Coast Range and the southern Sierra Nevada.

 

I want to carefully watch the pattern for Monday through Wednesday of next week as temperatures could turn very cold. A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to build all the way into Alaska while a cold trough is dug out over the central US. Between these systems will be a cold shaft of air moving into the interior west and possibly California. If this pattern sets up just right, it could result in a hard freeze. Since we will shortly be moving into December, the risk factor of this happening goes up considerably. I’m not calling for a freeze next week at this point. I’m just explaining a pattern showing up on the GFS model, but not necessarily others. This is just for informational purposes just in case.

 

Forecast: Variable high clouds at times tonight. Mostly clear to  occasionally  partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. Partly cloudy and cooler Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. Showers becoming likely Thursday night through Friday. A chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. Showers becoming likely again Saturday night and Sunday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 33/63/32/57 Reedley 33/64/32/57 Dinuba 32/63/31/57
Porterville 34/63/32/57 Lindsay 32/62/30/56 Delano 33/64/32/56
Bakersfield 42/62/38/55 Taft 45/62/42/53 Arvin 37/64/33/57
Lamont 38/64/35/57 Pixley 32/63/31/56 Tulare 32/62/30/57
Woodlake 33/64/31/57 Hanford 33/64/32/57 Orosi 33/63/31/56

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 mph late mornings and afternoons with periods of near calm conditions and at or less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions during the later night and morning hours through Tuesday.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night and possibly much of the day Thursday. The first of two storms will arrive Thursday night through Friday, spreading precipitation over the area. This system could potentially have a pineapple connection associated with it. For those of you new to this business, that is a subtropical feed which begins north of the Hawaiian islands then northeastward into California. It’s also known as an atmospheric river. If we are fortunate enough to see this unfold, heavy amounts of rain could fall over the Coast Range and the southern Sierra Nevada with heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra. Just as soon as this system moves eastward, a second low…a coastal hugger…will slide southward right along the west coast. The counterclockwise flow around such storms causes bands of showers to pinwheel inland. Dry weather will return Monday and last for several days.

 

Frost:  Tonight’s forecast is a bit tougher than recent nights as variable high clouds will spill into the area from the west. This may slow the radiational cooling process enough to result in a few more locations coming in above freezing. Even so, I’m forecasting coldest locations at or slightly below freezing. Monday night will be similar to previous nights with widespread low to mid 30s. Wednesday should turn out to be the coldest in this series as a colder air mass settles in from a low which will be moving through the Great Basin. Coldest locations could be down near 27 to 28 with most other locations in the 29 to 32 degree range. Thursday’s temperatures will depend upon the arrival of cloud cover ahead of the next weather system which should  bring showers Thursday and Friday. Above freezing conditions can be expected Friday through Sunday. We’re still looking closely at Monday through Wednesday of next week as a pipeline of cold air moves from the Yukon Territory into the interior west. We will have to watch this pattern closely as it is close to being a freeze configuration. Other models don’t show much of a problem, but the one model has done a good job historically in the medium term. If I was pinned down, I would say this would be a mid to upper 20s event, but for now, I’m not ready to bite.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

32

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 28 morning

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.