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Forecast

November 27, 2022 report

November 27, 2022

Currently, we are under an area of weak high pressure resulting in a northwest flow aloft. Satellite imagery shows a weather system far out to sea, however it will throw some mid  and high level clouds over head, mainly this afternoon and tonight. In the meantime, disturbances continue to roll out of the Gulf of Alaska along the eastern side of the high then mainly into the Great Basin. One such system will roll through Tuesday with no weather per se for central California, however the air mass behind this system is relatively cold and may bring a number of locations below freezing Wednesday morning. Colder locations will continue to be slightly below freezing tonight and again Monday night. A shift in the pattern will occur beginning Thursday. The upper high will be suppressed southward as an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from central Canada to central California spreads precipitation over central California. There is some indication that a subtropical tap will develop running from southwest to northeast, perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range. Theoretically, this could produce some significant amounts of rain and snow. The second system will arrive late Saturday and Sunday for another shot at precipitation. Since there are significant timing differences from model to model, the best course of action would be to go with a good chance of showers from late Thursday through Sunday interspersed with dry weather in between.

 

Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy today. Variable cloudiness tonight. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night. A slight chance of showers late Thursday. A good chance of showers Friday then on and off through Sunday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 67/35/62/31/56 Reedley 67/34/62//31/56 Dinuba 65/34/62/31/55
Porterville 66/34/62/34/56 Lindsay 66/32/62/31/55 Delano 67/35/63/32/57
Bakersfield 66/43/61/39/54 Taft 65/46/61/43/52 Arvin 67/37/67/35/57
Lamont 67/39/63/34/57 Pixley 66/35/65/35/56 Tulare 65/34/62/31/55
Woodlake 65/34/62/31/55 Hanford 66/35/62/32/56 Orosi 65/34/62/34/55

 

Seven Day Forecast

Wednesday

Mostly clear

31/57

Thursday

PM showers possible

35/62

Friday

Chance of showers

41/61

 

Saturday

Chance of showers

39/58

Sunday

Chance of showers

40/59

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 4 through December 10:  Let’s try to get some rainfall in here during this time frame. This model does show the storm door open, unlike the present pattern which refuses to rain. Bottom line is the chance of precipitation is good with below average temperatures.

 

December:  This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.

 

December, January, February:  This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the late morning through the afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. Winds later Tuesday night and Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night and probably most of Thursday. By Thursday night, the chance of showers will begin to increase ahead of an elongated trough of low pressure. The chance of showers will continue Friday through Sunday as a big, cold trough of low pressure moves into the western states. The GFS model shows a train of subtropical moisture which will move southwest to northeast into central California. This set up means the moisture feed will be moving inland perpendicular to the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada, allowing for a chance of heavy rain in the mountains and the valley, however it will also form a rain shadow on the valley side of the Coast Range. High resolution precipitation estimates range from .25 to .50 in Merced County, .10 to .25 in Fresno County sloping to just a few hundredths in Kern County.

 

Frost:  We may have enough cloud cover overhead tonight to keep temperatures above freezing at most locations. However, just as a precaution I’ll forecast coldest locations in the lower 30s tonight. Tuesday morning should be very similar to recent history with widespread low to mid 30s. Wednesday morning will be colder as a cold air mass dives southward behind a system moving into the Great Basin. Coldest locations Wednesday morning could drop down to 26  to  27 degrees with most locations in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. By Thursday morning, cloud cover should be increasing ahead of a trough of low pressure which will bring rain back into the forecast. Friday through Sunday will be above freezing due to unsettled weather and a chance of showers each day. I’m still looking at modeling for an air mass behind a storm system which will move through a week from Monday. by then, a very narrow sharp ridge of high pressure will extend from off shore California to Alaska which will cause a north/south trajectory right down the west coast and into California. Theoretically, this could result in a strong of frost nights, potentially colder than recent nights. This is something I want to watch in the coming days.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

32

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/31%  Porterville, 95%/34%

Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 30s.   Kern:  Low to mid 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield:  Today 80% tomorrow 80%

ET for the past seven days: Stratford .53  Parlier, .47 Arvin .61 Porterville .52 Delano .48

Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 52, Arvin 55  Porterville .52, Delano 50  *=data missing.

Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,

Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50  *=data missing.

Soil Temperatures:

Average Temperatures: 60/39  Record Temperatures: 78/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  449  +73 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  .66,  51%  of average, Monthly  .66

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .66,  94%  of average,   Monthly:  .66

Average Temperature This Month: 49.9 -4.0 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 204, Parlier 274  Arvin 189 , Belridge 241, Shafter 238, Stratford 267,  Delano  249,  Porterville  264  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:50, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:55

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  68 /  36 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  68 /  37 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  67 /  41 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  69 /  32 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  69 /  32 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  69 /  41 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  67 /  36 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  70 /  37 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.24    67    4.32   235     1.84    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    1.19    84    3.06   215     1.42    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.99    66    1.99   133     1.50    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.50    42    0.65    54     1.20    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    0.66    51    1.57   122     1.29    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    0.59    60    1.24   127     0.98     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.66    94    0.95   136     0.70     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.46    75    0.78   128     0.61     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.02    10       M     M     0.20     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    1.46    90    2.19   134     1.63    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.71    56    1.58   124     1.27    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.99    67    1.40    95     1.47    13.32

 

 

 

Next report: November 27 afternoon

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.