November 28, 2022
Today will be the last day readings enter the 60s for a while as a considerably colder air mass will overspread the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is all being brought on by a weather system moving into the Great Basin with some modified arctic air along its far western flank. Lows Wednesday morning will be chilly, however it fortunately will be just a one night stand as clouds begin to increase by Thursday morning ahead of two weather systems which will affect the valley. Rain will begin to spread over central California Thursday afternoon with periods of rain Friday. This storm will have a pineapple connection with subtropical air moving from north of the Hawaiian Islands northeastward into California. Quantitative precipitation estimates show around .50 for Fresno County sloping to around .10 in the south valley. The second storm also has good potential. Models still show this system as a coastal hugger with the center of circulation hugging the coastline as it moves southward to off the central coast Sunday. The rotation of this storm will cause bands of showers to pinwheel inland from time to time later Saturday night through Sunday evening. The low will weaken and move inland Sunday night, ending the pattern as upper level high pressure becomes established Monday of next week and remains in place for several days thereafter.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with rain likely at times Thursday into Friday. A chance of showers Friday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday with a slight chance of showers. Rain becoming likely at times Saturday night through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/5//./7/30/62 | Reedley 63/33/57/29/61 | Dinuba 62/33/57/29/62 |
| Porterville 63/33/57/30/62 | Lindsay 62/32/57/28/62 | Delano 64/34/57/29/61 |
| Bakersfield 63/40/55//35/60 | Taft 61/41/53/36/60 | Arvin 63/37/57/32/61 |
| Lamont 64/36/57/31/61 | Pixley 63/32/57/28/61 | Tulare 62/31/56/29/62 |
| Woodlake 63/32/57/28/61 | Hanford 64/34/56/28/62 | Orosi 63/32/57/28/61 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
PM rain 58/62 |
Friday
Periods of rain 43/60 |
Saturday
AM rain possible 38/55 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 38/58 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 5 through December 11: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds by late Monday will begin to pick up out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts by Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be light and variable. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. We have two welcome storms from Thursday on. The first has a classic pineapple connection.. that’s where subtropical moisture moves from near Hawaii northeastward into California, moving perpendicular to both the Coast Range and the southern Sierra Nevada. This will result in 2 to 3 inches of water equivalent along the Sierra range and perhaps 2 feet of new snow over the higher elevations. Rainfall over the valley floor from late Thursday through Sunday will range between one-half and one inch in Fresno County, three-fourths to one point two five in Merced County. Down in Tulare county, expect one-quarter to one-half inch, sloping to a tenth to a quarter of an inch down in Kern County morning should be very similar to recent history with widespread low to mid 30s. Wednesday morning will be colder as a cold air mass dives southward behind a system moving into the Great Basin. Coldest locations Wednesday morning could drop down to 26 to 27 degrees with most locations in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. By Thursday morning, cloud cover should be increasing ahead of a trough of low pressure which will bring rain back into the forecast. Friday through Sunday will be above freezing due to unsettled weather and a chance of showers each day. I’m still looking at modeling for an air mass behind a storm system which will move through a week from Monday. by then, a very narrow sharp ridge of high pressure will extend from off shore California to Alaska which will cause a north/south trajectory right down the west coast and into California. Theoretically, this could result in a strong of frost nights, potentially colder than recent nights. This is something I want to watch in the coming days.. Dry weather will return by Monday, lasting for several days thereafter.
Frost: Most locations were a degree or two warmer than 24 hours ago this morning. Even so, Lindcove reached 31 and Lindsay 32 by 5:30 am. Tonight will revert back to widespreaed low to mid 30s. however, there is cloud cover moving into northern California and there may be enough over the valley to keep temperatures up tonight. Even so, I prefer to play it safe and go with the lower end of possibilities. Tuesday morning will see low to mid 30s, as well. Speaking of Tuesday, a dry cold front will move through the valley during the day with a colder air mass overspreading central California. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week with upper 20s and lower 30s being widespread, assuming skies reman clear for several hours at a time. There will be many variables to contend with such as wind conditions, cloud cover, mixing, etc. Hopefully cloud cover will move in in a timely manner Thursday ahead of the next Pacific storm which will bring rain Thursday night and Friday. Expect above freezing conditions Friday through Sunday due to unsettled conditions. From Monday through Wednesday of next week, cold temperatures can be expected but not as cold as earlier model runs had depicted. The air mass moving in early next week will be out of the Gulf of Alaska with no modified arctic air moving into California. Be advised, however, this could change and turn into a mid to upper 20s event. For now, low to mid 30s appear to be likely.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/35% Porterville, 97%/33%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today 40% tomorrow 50%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .5 Parlier, .45 Arvin .61 Porterville .51 Delano .47
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 51 Arvin 55 Porterville .52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 60/39 Record Temperatures: 76/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 465 +73 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 51% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 91% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 49.9 -3.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 213, Parlier 288 Arvin 199 , Belridge 251, Shafter 250, Stratford 280, Delano 261, Porterville 271 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:51, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:54
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 67 4.32 235 1.84 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 84 3.06 215 1.42 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 66 1.99 133 1.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 42 0.65 54 1.20 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 51 1.57 122 1.29 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 60 1.24 127 0.98 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 94 0.95 136 0.70 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 75 0.78 128 0.61 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 10 M M 0.20 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 90 2.19 134 1.63 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 56 1.58 124 1.27 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 67 1.40 95 1.47 13.32
Next report: November 28 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.