November 29, 2022
Today marks the 29th day in a row that the overnight lows have been at or below freezing at the colder locations. Tomorrow night, we may be above freezing because of cloud cover, however there is more cold air on the horizon. A colder air mass has overspread the region which should lower temperatures this afternoon into the mid to upper 50s. a trough of cold low pressure moved into the Great Basin over the past 24 hours and will shift into the Rocky Mountain region by this afternoon. The flow behind this system is north/northwest. Tonight may turn out to be the coldest of the month with widespread upper 20s and lower 30s. More in the frost discussion below.
Wednesday will mark the end of the current weather pattern as we move into a wet pattern for a change. We will be dealing with two storms. Each has its own personality. The first will be from a trough of low pressure out of the Gulf of Alaska. As it moves southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, it will form a pineapple connection which will result in heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada with heavy snow up high. This system will be right off the central California coast late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with widespread precipitation. The low will lose its pineapple connection as it moves into southern California and will weaken Thursday night and Friday.
The second storm will be a coastal hugger, although current models show it to be further off shore as it moves southward than previous models had indicated. Even so, it will be close enough to push bands of precipitation into central California Saturday night and Sunday. Next week appears dry with a big ridge along the west coast resulting in cold weather which is discussed in the frost summary below.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight with the exception of Kern County and southern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy through the morning hours and partly cloudy in the afternoon. Mostly clear tonight and Wednesday morning. Increasing cloudiness later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Rain becoming likely Thursday through Thursday night. A chance of showers later Thursday through Friday. Periods of rain Saturday through Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/28/62/34/57 | Reedley 58/29/62/35/57 | Dinuba 57/28/61/33/58 |
| Porterville 58/27/62/33/58 | Lindsay 57/26/62/33/58 | Delano 59/29/62/35/60 |
| Bakersfield 55/37/62/41/60 | Taft 56/40/59/42/58 | Arvin 55/31/62/39/57 |
| Lamont 56/30/62/38/60 | Pixley 58/28/61/34/59 | Tulare 58/27/60/35/57 |
| Woodlake 57/28/62/34/57 | Hanford 58/29/62/34/58 | Orosi 58/28/62/34/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Chance of showers 39/60 |
Saturday
Rain likely 39/56 |
Sunday
Showers likely 41/58 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/57 |
Tuesday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 29/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times. Stronger gusts are possible along the west side. Winds tonight through Wednesday will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. By late Wednesday and Wednesday night, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday night then generally out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph Friday.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase Thursday morning, especially from Fresno County north with rain spreading into the south valley Thursday afternoon and continuing Thursday night. Rain will begin to taper off later Thursday night and Friday morning. A chance of showers is still possible for Thursday night and Friday. The chance of rain will again increase later Saturday night and Sunday.
Rainfall on the valley floor could be significant with these events. Rainfall amounts from roughly a Porterville/Tipton line northward along the east side could tally up to .50 to 1.00 inch of rain, tapering off to .10 to .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. These estimates are for the combined storms.
Lift up and down the Sierra Nevada could wring out anywhere from 2 to 4 inches over the higher elevations with heavy snow initially at around 8,000 feet, lowering to around 4,000 to 5,000 feet later Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather will return by Sunday night. For now, a ridge of high pressure shows up for early next week, returning us to a dry weather pattern.
Frost: Lows this morning varied widely due to upslope clouds being generated along the Tehachapi Mountains and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada. Temperatures in Kern County are only in the 40s at this hour with coldest locations north of that line being in the upper 20s. Every day this month has been a frost night and tonight should be the coldest. A colder air mass is currently moving into central California due to a fast moving system sliding through the Great Basin. Assuming the upslope clouds burn off during the late morning and afternoon hours, skies will be mostly clear, leading to strong radiational cooling. Coldest locations tonight will get down to 25 to 27 degrees with most unprotected flatland locations ranging from 28 to 31. Hillsides will be in the low to mid 30s. the inversion tonight will be somewhat weak, hopefully ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer by late tonight. Wednesday night and Thursday morning should be warmer due to increasing cloudiness ahead of the first of two storms which will maintain above freezing conditions Friday through Sunday night. The air mass infiltrating central California behind that second storm is cold, cold enough for upper 20s and lower 30s by Tuesday morning with several nights thereafter at or below freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/38% Porterville, 98%/39%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 40% tomorrow 80%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .54 Parlier, .46 Arvin .62 Porterville .52 Delano .47
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 52 Arvin 55 Porterville .52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 59/39 Record Temperatures: 76/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 481 +73 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 49% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 89% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 49.8 -3.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 224, Parlier 302 Arvin 208 , Belridge 250, Shafter 260, Stratford 291, Delano 274, Porterville 288 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:52, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / 34 / M /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 35 / M /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 63 4.32 220 1.96 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 79 3.06 203 1.51 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 63 1.99 126 1.58 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 39 0.65 51 1.28 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 49 1.57 116 1.35 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 57 1.24 120 1.03 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 0.66 89 0.95 128 0.74 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 73 0.78 124 0.63 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 10 M M 0.21 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 84 2.19 126 1.74 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 53 1.58 117 1.35 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 63 1.40 89 1.57 13.32
Next report: November 29 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.