December 2, 2022 afternoon report

December 2, 2022

The southern half of the valley is blanketed with a low overcast as of midday. The base of the overcast at Bakersfield, Porterville, and Visalia was 1,500 feet while at Lemoore the base is 1,900 feet. We remain in a lull between two major storms, the first of which has moved on. The second is knocking on our door. The precipitation from our second event will arrive tonight, mainly after midnight, becoming likely by sunrise. Periods of rain, possibly locally heavy at times Saturday through Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies Sunday night and Monday with areas of low clouds can be expected. This upcoming event will also provide central California with significant precipitation. Some models are showing totals between tonight and Sunday night will eclipse totals from the last storm. The forecast center for California is forecasting between 2 and 3 inches of rain which will translate into heavy snow up high.

Models are somewhat different for the mid to latter part of next week, which is pretty much standard procedure during active weather periods. They now show a series of weaker disturbances moving into northern California through Friday. There will also be plenty of opportunities for extensive fog and low clouds, mainly during the night and morning hours. However, if a cold, gray overcast remains in place for much of the day from midweek on it would not surprise this meteorologist. That would be like the glory days of old.

Forecast: Cloudy tonight with an increasing chance of showers after midnight with showers becoming likely by sunrise. Periods of showers Saturday through Saturday night, locally heavy at times. Mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with areas of fog and low clouds. Extensive fog and/or low clouds Tuesday through Friday with partial clearing in the afternoons.

Short Term:

Madera 48/58/51/63	Reedley 49/61/50/62	Dinuba 47/59/51/61
Porterville 48/61/51/63	Lindsay 46/61/49/63	Delano 49/62/51/62
Bakersfield 52/65/53/62	Taft 52/64/54/61	Arvin 51/63/51/63
Lamont 49/62/52/62	Pixley 48/62/50/63	Tulare 47/61/49/62
Woodlake 48/61/50/62	Hanford 48/59/50/62	Orosi 48/61/51/61

Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to near 20 mph, especially from Fresno north, continuing Saturday through Sunday.

Rain: The chance of more rain will increase again after midnight tonight with rain likely at times Saturday through Saturday night, locally heavy at times. Rainfall amounts from this second event, according to high resolution models this afternoon, indicate 1.23 at Kerman and 1.00 at Porterville. That may be a bit overdone but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another.50 to .75 with this event. Dry weather will return by Sunday evening. Along the west side, anywhere from .25 to .50 is anticipated with around .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Sunday night and continue for the upcoming week. earlier models had indicated the possibility of another storm system about Friday. Now it appears there will be periods of weak disturbances from time to time in northern California.

Frost: All locations tonight and again for Sunday through Tuesday mornings will be above freezing. Models this afternoon are not showing a strong system moving in Friday. Instead, they show a series of disturbances moving into mainly northern California. Clouds from these storms should still reduce the chance of subfreezing weather. Even without the higher clouds, the stage does seem to be set for a period of fog and low clouds. Still, with such model disparity, I’m going to go out there and say we could see low 30s by Wednesday.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: December 3 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.