December 4, 2022
It was another very active night and the activity continues this morning as low pressure off the California/Oregon border continues to spread showers into central California from time to time. We are on the back side of this storm. Models show it finally opening up into a low pressure wave which will be centered over northern California from tonight through Tuesday. The chance of showers will slowly diminish this morning, however I’m not ready to completely take showers out of the forecast until Tuesday. This system has shown itself to be a prolific precipitation producer with several locations reporting more than an inch on the valley floor and as much as five to seven feet of new snow at the 8,000 foot elevation.
Weak high pressure will build in from the west beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday night. The main challenge during this time frame will be fog and low clouds during the night and morning hours, possibly lasting through the day in some areas.
Models show a trough of low pressure moving through Friday through Saturday, spreading precipitation over the northern half of California. How far south precipitation will spread is speculative at this point, but a reintroduction of showers into the forecast is a good bet, especially from Fresno County north. We should see a zonal westerly flow in the atmosphere begin about a week from today. This particular pattern should help us dry out with the main storm track migrating northward into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Showers likely for a time this morning. A chance of showers this afternoon. A slight chance of showers tonight through Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday night with areas of fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness leading to a chance of showers Friday and Friday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with widespread night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/42/59/39/57 | Reedley 63/42/60/38/57 | Dinuba 62/40/58/38/56 |
| Porterville 64/42/60/39/57 | Lindsay 63/40/60/37/57 | Delano 64/42/59/39/58 |
| Bakersfield 63/48/60/44/55 | Taft 63/48/57/46/55 | Arvin 65/44/62/42/58 |
| Lamont 64/44/60/45/57 | Pixley 63/42/59/42/57 | Tulare 62/42/59/40/57 |
| Woodlake 63/42/60/38/56 | Hanford 64/42/60/39/57 | Orosi 63/42/60//39/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 32/56 |
Friday
PM showers possible 37/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 32/57 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 34/54 |
Two Week Outlook: December 19 through December 16: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today at 5 to 15 mph, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 7 mph late mornings and afternoons and light and variable during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The chance of showers will decrease as the day wares on. The low pressure system responsible for all the action the past few days will open up into a weak low pressure wave. This does not completely eliminate the chance of showers, however the chance from later today through Tuesday will be much lower. A trough of low pressure will move through Friday. There are many differences on models regarding how far south precipitation will progress, but I feel it’s necessary to put a chance of showers in the forecast, especially from Fresno County north. After Saturday, it appears we’ll have several days of dry weather as a flat ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight through Tuesday morning. There is a chance of local frost coming up Wednesday through Friday as the air mass behind the current storm is quite cold, but nothing unusual for this time of year. Depending how much cloud cover remains, and how widespread the fog and low clouds become will all play a part. Saturday should be above freezing due to an increase in higher clouds. In the medium range, mostly above freezing conditions will prevail due to fog and low clouds.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/88% Porterville, 100%/93%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford,.40 Parlier, .31 Arvin .41 Porterville .30 Delano .30
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 51 Arvin 55 Porterville .52, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 58/37 Record Temperatures: 72/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 555 +81 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 2.08, 120% of average, Monthly .1.29
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .81, 89% of average, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month: 48.3 -0.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 271, Parlier 364 Arvin 250 , Belridge 300, Shafter 316, Stratford 336, Delano 333, Porterville 349 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:57, Sunset, 4:42, hours of daylight, 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.05 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 47 / 0.36 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.59 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.44 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.55 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 47 / 0.32 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1540 / 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / 0.30 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 59 / 45 / M /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.09 2.01 87 4.32 188 2.30 13.45
MODESTO 0.13 2.03 113 3.06 170 1.80 12.27
MERCED 0.07 1.75 97 1.99 110 1.81 11.80
MADERA 0.36 1.24 83 0.65 43 1.50 10.79
FRESNO 0.59 1.89 121 1.57 101 1.56 10.99
HANFORD 0.44 1.37 117 1.24 106 1.17 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.06 0.81 93 0.95 109 0.87 6.36
BISHOP T 0.47 67 0.78 111 0.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 8 M M 0.24 2.20
SALINAS 0.14 1.91 93 2.19 107 2.05 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.45 1.96 125 1.58 101 1.57 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.24 1.71 95 1.40 78 1.80 13.32
Next report: December 5 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.