December 8, 2022
Clouds are increasing this afternoon ahead of a weakening trough of low pressure off shore. Rain has spread over parts of northern California, however satellite imagery off the central coast shows the cold front weakening. The thrust of the movement is eastward rather than southeastward, so expect no more than sprinkles or isolated light showers during the morning hours. A weak ridge of high pressure will build in Friday and Friday night followed by what is shaping up to be a very dynamic storm system over the weekend. Some of the forecast models have pushed back the timing for rain for the valley. Previous model runs had precipitation moving into the central valley at mid to late afternoon Saturday. The GFS model is now indicating it may be Sunday morning before rain arrives in the south valley. Quantitative precipitation estimates for this system have gone a big over the top. They are predicting over 4 to 6 inches of water equivalent along the Sierra Nevada and 1.50 to 2 inches over the valley floor during a 36 hour time frame. Models did this during the previous system we had. Even though we did receive a good dousing, amounts came nowhere near model projections. Even if we receive just half of what models are saying, though, it will be yet another very beneficial storm system. It may be midday Monday before rain ceases over the valley floor. The main challenge for next week will be overnight lows which is discussed below in the frost summary.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with just patchy fog during the early morning hours with a minimal chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. Mostly cloudy Saturday. A chance of rain Saturday evening, rain becoming likely later Saturday night through Sunday night. Showers for a time Monday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon except in Kern County and eastern Tulare County where it will remain mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and low clouds Wednesday and Thursday during the early morning hours with hazy afternoon sunshine.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/59/39/60 | Reedley 40/59/40/58 | Dinuba 38/58/40/60 |
| Porterville 38/59/40/58 | Lindsay 37/59/40/58 | Delano 41/59/41/61 |
| Bakersfield 43/60/43/61 | Taft 44/58/44/59 | Arvin 42/60/42/61 |
| Lamont 39/61/41/61 | Pixley 39/60/40/61 | Tulare 38/59/39/58 |
| Woodlake 38/59/40/58 | Hanford 40/60/40/58 | Orosi 38/59/40/59 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be light and variable through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Saturday with stronger gusts from Fresno County north.
Rain: There’s a minimal chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers during the early morning hours, however most locations will receive no measurable precipitation. We’ll have a short break Friday into Saturday morning before a full bore winter storm begins to pound California. Some models have pushed back this system’s arrival time from midafternoon Saturday to sometime later Saturday night or even Sunday morning. Since not all models reflect this, we’ll go ahead and forecast a chance of rain Saturday afternoon from Fresno County north. Expect rain, locally heavy at times, Saturday night through Sunday night with showers lasting well into Monday morning. Some of the precipitation estimates may be a bit overdone. Some are predicting between an inch and a half and two inches on the valley floor and 4 to 6 inches along the Sierra Nevada with 4 to 5 feet of new snow above the 7,000 foot elevation. Even if this is overdone and we receive just half that amount, it would be a significant winter storm. Dry weather will return by Monday afternoon and last at least through Friday of next week. some models are showing a cutoff low off shore by Saturday of next week, but it’s way too early to content with that puppy now.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Sunday morning. There’s a chance of local frost Monday morning. My feeling, however, is the atmosphere will be too churned up by fog, clouds, wind, etc for readings too low. It still appears we’ll have at least an upper 20s to lower 30s event Tuesday through Friday mornings. There is a legitimate chance of mid 20s in colder frost pockets beginning Tuesday morning. With more moisture being added to the valley floor this weekend, no doubt fog will be somewhat of a thorn. However, with drier air sweeping in from the north/northeast, it’s possible fog may have a difficult time digging its heels in.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 9 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.