December 9, 2022
Clouds are beginning to increase from the northwest. These are precursors of a powerful winter storm which will buffet California with strong winds and heavy rain and snow, just about everywhere but the deserts. The surface models are interesting this afternoon. They show tightly wound isobars, which are lines of equal pressure. Basically, the tighter they are, the stronger the winds. Winds out of the southeast along the west side and from Fresno County north will be gusting between 30 and 40 mph Saturday and Saturday night. The other big story will be precipitation amounts. The river forecast center for California and Nevada is still projecting 4 to 6 inches of rain along the entire Sierra Nevada below the snow line and 4 to 5 feet of new snow above the 7,000 foot mark. With California being plagued by years of drought, you observe these types of numbers and think it’s very unusual, but it’s really not. On rare occasions it can be considerably higher. Once this system sets up, it will take its sweet time moving out. Most models place the center of circulation over northwest California Sunday morning, moving into central Nevada Monday morning. Showers will continue well into Monday before things begin to settle down. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Monday night and Tuesday and will dominate our weather through Friday. Upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific and will ridge up into the Gulf of Alaska while a big trough of low pressure is anchored over the interior west. This will set up a northerly flow and will pump modified arctic air into California. This is discussed in the frost summary.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. Rain likely at times Saturday through Sunday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Monday morning, ending by noon. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/61/48/55 | Reedley 40/63/48/56 | Dinuba 39/60/47/55 |
| Porterville 40/63/48/56 | Lindsay 38/62/47/54 | Delano 41/63/48/55 |
| Bakersfield 44/64/50/56 | Taft 45/63/52/55 | Arvin 42/65/49/56 |
| Lamont 41/64/49/56 | Pixley 39/63/48/55 | Tulare 40/61/47/54 |
| Woodlake 40/62/47/55 | Hanford 41/62/48/56 | Orosi 39/62/48/55 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will begin to increase later tonight out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts from Fresno County north. Winds Saturday and Saturday night will continue out of the south to southeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph possible from Kings County northward on the west side and Fresno County north on the east side. winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, continuing Sunday night. Winds Monday will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, diminishing during the evening hours.
Rain: Even this close to the event, models still vary a bit on the timing of the onset of precipitation. Some range from early Saturday morning up until early afternoon. But models are also estimating less precipitation than they previously had. Still, the numbers remain impressive, generally ranging from an inch to an inch and a half. My gut feel is, most locations north of Kern County and east of Highway 99 should pick up to around .75 to 1.25. Somewhere near a half inch can be expected along the west side of the valley and probably somewhere near a third of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County. Showers will continue well into Monday morning, but should be over by noon. There’s some debate on models in handling a cut off low next weekend. We’ll deal with that in the coming days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Models have been pretty consistent as far as temperatures go for the upcoming week. Therefore, I’m reasonably confident we’ll be dealing with the coldest air mass of the season to date. Nevertheless, it will be manageable. Tuesday through Friday mornings, and especially Wednesday and Thursday, will have widespread upper 20s and lower 30s with colder regions dipping into the mid 20s for the first time this season. With a soaking wet valley floor, no doubt fog and low clouds will become an issue. However, if the air dries out enough due to that northerly flow aloft, fog may be less prevalent than I’d like. Some models are showing the development of a cut off low next weekend. This could also come into play. I noticed one model this afternoon was showing a weak low developing right over California. That, however, is the odd model out so we’ll axe that one. At any rate, Tuesday through Friday will be cold, but nothing unusual for December.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 10 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.