December 10, 2022
A complex low pressure system at the surface is parked just west of the Bay Area this afternoon. A warm front is moving on shore along the central coast while a cold front lags a few hundred miles behind. This whole conglomeration of fronts will cross northern and central California tonight and Sunday with heavy precipitation and strong, gusty winds in many areas. With all this activity both at the surface and aloft, a few nocturnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. By Sunday evening, the center of circulation should be in extreme western Nevada, so it appears precipitation will continue into the morning commute Monday. behind this system will be a ridge of upper level high pressure which will build northeastward into the Gulf of Alaska. Combine that with a deep trough of low pressure moving through the interior western US and a northerly will develop from western Canada right down into California. This will likely lead to some frosty mornings beginning Tuesday with a greater risk of freezing weather Wednesday and Thursday. The oddball configuration showing up on some models this morning is no longer there, so once we get past the current storm, the remainder of the upcoming week will be dry with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog as a weak warm air inversion develops above the valley floor. By the time we move into the late part of the work week and into the coming weekend, we should see a low pressure system develop off the California coast, too far off shore to bring precipitation. In fact, it will more than likely just sit out there for several days then dissipate about a week from Monday or Tuesday.
Forecast: Rain at times through Sunday night. Showers for a time Monday morning, ending by mid morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon with increasing amounts of low clouds and night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/55/38/53 | Reedley 47/56/38/52 | Dinuba 47/55/38/53 |
| Porterville 47/56/39/53 | Lindsay 47/55/38/52 | Delano 49/56/40/53 |
| Bakersfield 50/55/42/51 | Taft 51/56/43/49 | Arvin 50/56/40/53 |
| Lamont 49/55/40/52 | Pixley 48/56/38/52 | Tulare 47/55/37/52 |
| Woodlake 47/55/38/53 | Hanford 48/56/39/53 | Orosi 47/56/37/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Sunday will be mainly out of the south/southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Later Sunday afternoon and evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, decreasing Monday and becoming light by afternoon.
Rain: Heaviest precipitation, as of the time of this writing, stretched in about a 200 mile strip, moving onshore through Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties northeastward through Fresno, Merced, and Madera Counties then along the Sierra to Mariposa and Stanislaus Counties. This band of energy was moving slowly southeastward. Heaviest rain will be from later this afternoon through Sunday morning, turning showery Sunday afternoon and night. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible tonight and Sunday. It still appears amounts of rain along the east side of the valley north of Kern County will range between .50 and one-inch with locally more, especially if thunderstorms occur. amounts along the west side should range between .25 and .50 and around .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County. These are rather broad based numbers but after all, this is a fluid situation (no pun intended). The rain should be over by about midmorning Monday. the remainder of next week should be dry.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings. Most locations Tuesday morning should be in the low to mid 30s, however cloud cover, wind conditions, mixing, etc. may keep most locations above freezing. A northerly flow will prevail from Monday night through Tuesday night. This is typically a very dry flow, however with this much new rainfall soaking the valley floor, enhanced upslope clouds will no doubt form which, theoretically could last into Wednesday morning. Also from Wednesday one, a weak upper ridge of high pressure will take over, creating enough of a warm air inversion to cause fog and low clouds to develop. For now, I’m going to stick with the premise of upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday through Friday with coldest river bottom type locations dipping into the mid 20s for short durations. For now, it doesn’t appear there will be much in the way of a pattern change through this coming weekend, so barring a takeover of fog and low clouds, we may see another string of frost nights similar to what we had in November.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 11 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.