December 11, 2022
Some of the precipitation totals coming out of the Sierra Nevada are nothing short of staggering. Shaver Lake has reported 7.41 inches of rain, Lodgepole 7.08, Yosemite Valley 5.87, with many other locations reporting between 4 and 6 inches. Shaver Lake has reported 38 inches of new snow and Lodgepole 65 inches of new snow, Tioga Pass 50 inches of new snow. Many locations here on the valley floor are reporting anywhere from one inch to an inch and half, especially along the east side. Storms like this come once in a blue moon. The center of the surface low is in eastern Kern County at this hour. However, the back side of the storm is still off shore, so this system is by no means finished with us. Periods of rain will continue through tonight with precipitation finally drawing to a close by the morning commute Monday. what’s even more interesting about this system is the fact that it’s a relatively cold storm. For example, the balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 3,900 feet. Typically, colder storms like this one do not carry as much water. However, this is weather and mother nature is going to do what she’s going to do. The low will move into the interior west Monday as an upper high builds into the Gulf of Alaska. This will set up a north/south squeeze play with modified arctic air being squeezed into the western US. Models have been fairly consistent in projecting below freezing temperatures later this week. this is discussed below in the frost summary. The pattern for later in the week, however, is a bit shaky. Models have been going back and forth on a closed low center off the northern California coast beginning late Thursday. They show it meandering off shore for 72 hours or so. We could see a few showers show up again from Thursday night into the weekend.
Forecast: Periods of rain through tonight, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers for a time Monday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon and night. Mostly clear Tuesday after periods of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday through Sunday with a slight chance of showers Friday through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/38/53/33/53 | Reedley 56/39/52/33/52 | Dinuba 54/39/53/32/53 |
| Porterville 55/39/53/33/53 | Lindsay 54/39/53/31/52 | Delano 56/40/53/33/52 |
| Bakersfield 55/42/51/38/51 | Taft 54/42/49/39/50 | Arvin 56/39/52/35/52 |
| Lamont 57/40/52/36/52 | Pixley 54/39/52/32/52 | Tulare 54/38/53/31/53 |
| Woodlake 55/30/53/32/52 | Hanford 57/40/53/33/52 | Orosi 54/38/53/32/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 30/52 |
Thursday
AM fog/partly cloudy 32/55 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 35/55 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 35/57 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 33/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 17 through December 23: This model shows storminess moving mainly into the southern half of California with above average rain. In the meantime, a colder trough of low pressure will be over the western US, resulting in below average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times today then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph tonight, diminishing Monday. winds Monday night and Tuesday will be light and variable.
Rain: The rainfall pattern through tonight will be a bit more spotty as the cold front has moved through. Expect numerous showers and even a small chance of isolated thunderstorms later today through the evening hours. Most, if not all, the shower activity should be over by midmorning Monday with dry weather from Monday afternoon through at least Wednesday night. Models are having a difficult time with projections of an upper low off the northern California coast beginning Thursday. This is a weak feature, however if the placement is just right, there would be a chance of light showers any time from Thursday through Saturday. Amounts with this system, however, would be less than .10. Otherwise, expect dry weather after midday Monday.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. There is a chance of local frost coming up on Tuesday morning and more so Wednesday and Thursday. The flow aloft behind the current storm will be out of the north right down the Pacific coast and into California. There is a bit of a wild card, however, in the form of an off shore upper low. Models aren’t clear on the placement of this feature, however it may throw enough cloud cover over the valley later this week to nudge temperatures up higher than previously believed. For now, it appears the worse we would see from Tuesday through Friday would be upper 20s to lower 30s with unprotected regions perhaps down to 25 or so and most flatland type terrain from 28 to 31. Fog and low clouds may also play role as the week wears on due to abundant moisture. Like always, this will be a night by night approach. Fortunately no significant freeze is anticipated.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/46% Porterville, 86%/58%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .35, Parlier, .31 Arvin .41 Porterville .30 Delano .30
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53 Arvin 55 Porterville .42, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 56/37 Record Temperatures: 69/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 662 +42 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.21, 200% of average, Monthly .1.69
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .90, 95% of average, Monthly: .24
Average Temperature This Month: 50.4 +3.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 311, Parlier 418 Arvin 304 , Belridge 353, Shafter 372, Stratford 381, Delano 386, Porterville 392 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:02, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 47 / 1.11 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 48 / 0.48 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 52 / 0.88 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 53 / 0.65 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 50 / 0.53 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 53 / 0.16 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 52 / 0.46 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 53 / 0.20 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.74 3.43 122 4.43 158 2.81 13.45
MODESTO 0.91 3.82 169 3.32 147 2.26 12.27
MERCED 0.04 2.56 117 2.22 101 2.19 11.80
MADERA 0.03 1.53 81 0.69 37 1.88 10.79
FRESNO 0.06 2.41 127 1.98 104 1.90 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 1.64 115 1.56 110 1.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.90 83 1.10 102 1.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.65 80 0.78 96 0.81 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 7 M M 0.29 2.20
SALINAS 0.26 2.64 105 2.36 94 2.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.44 3.16 162 1.74 89 1.95 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.14 2.18 100 1.55 71 2.19 13.32
Next report: December 11 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.