December 10, 2022 report

December 10, 2022

A very dynamic storm has already spread precipitation over all of northern California and most of northcentral California. Lift is already playing a role along the Sierra Nevada as very strong winds aloft are being lifted by the mountain range, enhancing the amount of precipitation. Latest precipitation estimates are still calling for 6 to 8 inches of rain below the snow line with 4 to 5 feet of new snow above the 7,000 foot mark. Currently, the center of circulation is off the Oregon coast and will sag southward over northwest California by Sunday evening. By Monday morning, it will be over west central Nevada. Isobars are closely spaced on surface charts, meaning many areas will be buffeted by strong, gusty, southeast winds. These winds are blocked from getting into much of the eastern San Joaquin Valley south of Fresno County due to a 13,000 foot wall called the Sierra Nevada. Along the west side and from Fresno County north, some gusts may reach 30 to 40 mph, especially later this afternoon and tonight ahead of the main frontal band. The dynamics with this storm are such that isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight and Sunday. The back side of this event should finally clear the Sierra Nevada by roughly midday Monday. there will be a brief northerly flow as upper level high pressure builds into the Gulf of Alaska and a deep trough of low pressure is carved out over the Rocky Mountain region, squeezing that modified polar air into California. This will lead to a series of frost nights beginning Tuesday, but more so Wednesday through Friday. There is a wild card in there, though. This is discussed in the frost summary below.

Forecast: Rain spreading southward this morning. rain at times this afternoon through tonight, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers for a time Monday morning, ending by midday. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with areas of fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday with a small chance of light showers Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures:

Madera 62/47/55/37/52	Reedley 62/48/55/39/52	Dinuba 61/47/54/36/51
Porterville 63/48/55/37/53	Lindsay 63/48/56/38/52	Delano 64/48/55/39/53
Bakersfield 65/50/56/42/51	Taft 63/53/55/41/51	Arvin 64/49/55/40/52
Lamont 64/50/56/40/52	Pixley 63/47/56/39/52	Tulare 61/48/56/37/52
Woodlake 63/47/55/37/52	Hanford 63/47/54/37/53	Orosi 61/46/55/36/52

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

32/52

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

30/53

Thursday

Slight chance of showers

35/54

Friday

Slight chance of showers

35/55

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

34/56

Two Week Outlook: December 17 through December 23: This model shows storminess moving mainly into the southern half of California with above average rain. In the meantime, a colder trough of low pressure will be over the western US, resulting in below average temperatures.

December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.

December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.

Wind Discussion: Winds will increase from Kings County north along the west side and Fresno County north along the east side out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. gusts to 20 to 25 mph are possible later this afternoon and tonight. Elsewhere, winds will be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty southeast winds will continue into Sunday then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, slowly diminishing Sunday night and Monday

Rain: From now through Monday morning rainfall amounts on the valley floor north of Kern County and along the east side should total up to between .75 and 1.25. Strong winter storms typically mean strong rain shadows, so look for between .25 and .75 along the west side and .25 to .33 over the valley portion of Kern County. These estimates are for between this morning and Monday morning. The rain should end by midday Monday with dry weather thereafter. However, a rather odd pattern will set up Thursday and Friday which could actually result in light showers for the valley. Currently this feature looks weak and disorganized, but considering it wasn’t even on models 24 hours ago. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the coming week after Monday morning.

Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees Sunday and Monday mornings. For Tuesday through Friday, there is still a chance of upper 20s and lower 30s although something of a wild card has popped up this morning. They now show a rather ill defined area of low pressure over northern California with even a small chance of scattered light showers Thursday and Friday. If this feature adds enough cloud cover over the valley floor, a somewhat milder forecast would be in order. Still, the air mass swinging in behind the current storm is cold but now it appears Tuesday and Wednesday could turn out to be the coldest with upper 20s and lower 30s. it is possible coldest unprotected areas may sneak into the mid 20s. Slight moderation is due this coming weekend as a northerly flow is displaced by a west/northwest flow.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/63% Porterville, 100%/69%

Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield:

Today 80% tomorrow 30%

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .30, Parlier, .24 Arvin .29 Porterville .19 Delano .21

Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53 Arvin 55 Porterville .53, Delano 52 *=data missing.

Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,

Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52,

Delano 50 *=data missing.

Soil Temperatures:

Average Temperatures: 56/37 Record Temperatures: 77/25

Heating Degree Days This Season. 617 +53 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 235, 135% of average, Monthly .1.69

Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .90, 95% of average, Monthly: .24

Average Temperature This Month: 50.7 +3.3 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1 st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 282, Parlier 378 Arvin 265 ,

Belridge 312, Shafter 331, Stratford 346, Delano 345, Porterville 359 courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 7:00, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:44

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 48 / 0.00 /

MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 51 / 0.00 /

FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 48 / 0.00 /

HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 46 / 0.00 /

NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 46 / 0.00 /

BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / M / 0.00 /

VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 43 / 0.00 /

PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 42 / 0.00 /

Rainfall totals from October 1 st through September 30 th

SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR

STOCKTON T 2.69 98 4.43 162 2.74 13.45

MODESTO 0.01 2.91 133 3.32 152 2.19 12.27

MERCED T 2.52 118 2.22 104 2.13 11.80

MADERA 0.00 1.50 82 0.69 38 1.82 10.79

FRESNO 0.00 2.35 128 1.98 108 1.84 10.99

HANFORD 0.00 1.63 117 1.56 112 1.39 8.13

BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.90 86 1.10 105 1.05 6.36

BISHOP 0.00 0.65 82 0.78 99 0.79 4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 7 M M 0.28 2.20

SALINAS T 2.38 98 2.36 97 2.44 12.58

PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.72 143 1.74 92 1.90 12.15

SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.04 96 1.55 73 2.13 13.32

Next report: December 10 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.