December 12, 2022
The center of circulation of the powerful storm that pounded California this past weekend is now centered over northern Utah and southern Idaho. The flow around the back side of the low has the winds aloft out of the north. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies throughout the entire Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquín valley.
Upslope clouds are banking against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi. As a result, mostly cloudy skies prevail over southern Tulare County, much of Kings County and all of Kern County. The main challenge for the upcoming week will be overnight low temperatures as dewpoints begin to lower and a drier air mass moves in.
Weak upper level high pressure will slowly build inland from the eastern Pacific over the next 72 hours. In this morning’s forecast I had a chance of showers Friday through Sunday. I am now going to take chance of showers out of the forecast as the low will move southward off shore, but too far off shore to maintain showers in our forecast. With that in mind, it appears it will be a race between fog and frost as the coldest airmass of the early winter season filters into the valley. As weak high pressure caps the valley, a warm air inversion will develop for increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds, especially beginning Wednesday. If models are accurate, and I realize this is a ways down the road, but it looks like we may remain dry through Christmas Day.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through this evening in Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy in Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Wednesday and on through Monday of next week with considerable night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 32/52/29/52 | Reedley 34/52/30/53 | Dinuba 32/52/29/52 |
| Porterville 34/53/30/52 | Lindsay 33/53/30/52 | Delano 34/52/31/53 |
| Bakersfield 39/52/35/52 | Taft 37/51/35/52 | Arvin 35/53/34/53 |
| Lamont 34/52/33/53 | Pixley 33/51/30/53 | Tulare 32/52/29/52 |
| Woodlake 33/53/29/51 | Hanford 34/53/30/52 | Orosi 32/53/29/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts, diminishing tonight. Winds Monday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 6 mph mornings and afternoons and light and variable in the night and morning hours with possible calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: The colder, drier air is beginning to filter into the valley. Winds at most locations as of 1:00 pm were out of the northwest and are generally in the 8 to 15 mph range. The air aloft is quite chilly. Earlier today, the freezing level over Vandenburg was 3,900 feet. Up at Oakland, the freezing level was 3,700 feet. Skies are clearing over the northern part of the valley but no doubt some cloud cover will remain over the south valley into Tuesday morning. Over the past five days, models have consistently showing lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s for much of this week. beginning Wednesday morning, the very coldest unprotected type of locations will dip down to 26 to 27 or so with most flat terrain seeing temps from 28 to 32. Hillsides will be marginally above freezing. Tonight will be the mildest we will see this week as mixing plus upslope clouds will keep most locations in the low to mid 30s. it had appeared as early as this morning that cloud cover would help us out later in the week. however, latest models show that low moving too far off shore to keep temperatures milder. At any rate, I feel mid 20s in the coldest locations is the worse we will see this week with most locations between 28 and 32. As you might imagine, all the rain we received has resulted in a considerable amount of soil moisture which will increase the chance of progressively more and more fog and low clouds. For now, I see nothing that would point to a hard freeze. From now through mid January is historically the time of greatest risk.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 13 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.