December 12, 2022
The last of the shower activity is moving through the valley at this hour and will generally be over by the morning commute. This upcoming week will be much quieter but also colder. Currently, a ridge of upper level high pressure is building northeastward into british Columbia and the gulf of Alaska. This is creating a north/south flow down the west coast and into California. The main challenge the next couple of mornings will be overnight low temperatures with readings slipping below freezing in some areas tonight and over most of the valley Wednesday through Friday mornings. The freezing level this morning has dropped to around 3,800 feet, meaning snow is falling down to roughly the 3,000 foot elevation in the Kern County Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. Some models this morning show a closed low moving southward to off the California coast by Friday. It is possible that this system, as it moves inland through southern California, may have enough dynamics to produce light showers beginning Friday. Models do not show this system moving much, but rather show it just meandering off shore for several days for a minimal chance of showers Friday through Sunday. So, the main challenge this week will be overnight low temperatures and increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog which will become trapped on the valley floor due to a warm air inversion as the week wears on.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning with a chance of lingering showers. Partly cloudy this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday night with increasing amounts of fog and/or low clouds. Variable cloudiness Friday through Sunday with a minimal chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 52/33/53/30/52 | Reedley 52/34/53/34/52 | Dinuba 52/31/53/29/52 |
| Porterville 54/33/53/30/52 | Lindsay 53/31/53/30/51 | Delano 53/33/53/31/51 |
| Bakersfield 52/38/51/34/53 | Taft 50/36/50/35/51 | Arvin 53/35/53/33/53 |
| Lamont 52/34/52/33/53 | Pixley 53/34/52/31/53 | Tulare 52/32/52/30/52 |
| Woodlake 53/33/53/31/53 | Hanford 54/33/53/31/52 | Orosi 52/32/53/30/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 29/53 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 35/55 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 34/56 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 35/56 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 17 through December 23: This model shows storminess moving mainly into the southern half of California with above average rain. In the meantime, a colder trough of low pressure will be over the western US, resulting in below average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing this evening. Winds Tuesday through Thursday during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable at no more than 6 mph. During the night and morning hours, winds will be light with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Outside of a few lingering showers for a time this morning, expect dry weather through at least Thursday night. From Friday through Sunday, a weak upper low will be meandering off the central coast. Although significant precipitation is not in the forecast, there may be enough dynamics to squeeze some light showers out. There will be a minimal chance of light showers anytime between Friday and Monday. Most models agree that this feature will just meander on out to sea by later Monday, returning us to a dry forecast.
Frost: Now that we’re wrapping up the weekend storm, we can turn our attention to cold overnight lows. My feeling is tonight, most locations will be in the 30 to35 degree range as enough mixing of the atmosphere, along with areas of fog and/or clouds, should maintain safe conditions. For Wednesday and Thursday, we should see upper 20s and lower 30s become commonplace. Currently we have a ridge of high pressure building northeastward into western Canada while the weekend storm moves into the interior west. This is creating a squeeze play with northerly winds flowing right down the west coast and into California. Coldest overnight lows Wednesday morning will likely fall to 26 to 27 or so with most locations between 28 and 32. Expect similar conditions Thursday morning. we do have a bit of a wild card for Friday and on through the weekend in the form of a weak upper low which is projected to be off the central coast. This system may spread cloud cover over the area, thus nudging temperatures up. Models the past few days have had a tough time nailing this one down. If skies remain clear Friday through Sunday, upper 20s and lower 30s will continue. If we do receive the blessing of cloud cover, readings will remain in the 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/46% Porterville, 86%/58%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .37, Parlier, .30 Arvin .44 Porterville .32 Delano .32
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53 Arvin 55 Porterville .42, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 56/37 Record Temperatures: 69/18
Heating Degree Days This Season. 676 +37 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.23, 166% of average, Monthly 2.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 99% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 50.5 +3.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 311, Parlier 418 Arvin 312 , Belridge 360, Shafter 380, Stratford 381, Delano 394, Porterville 398 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
Max Min 24-Hr Snow
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 54 / 45 / 0.14 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 45 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 45 / 0.02 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 45 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 45 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 41 / 0.03 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 53 / 35 / 0.13 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 53 / 33 / 0.08 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
MERCED 0.08 3.65 162 2.22 99 2.25 11.80
MADERA 0.06 2.04 105 0.69 36 1.94 10.79
FRESNO 0.02 3.23 166 1.98 102 1.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.02 2.29 156 1.56 106 1.47 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.20 1.10 99 1.10 99 1.11 6.36
BISHOP 0.91 2.17 265 0.78 95 0.82 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.02 7 M M 0.30 2.20
SALINAS 0.14 3.37 131 2.36 91 2.58 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.18 2.91 129 1.55 69 2.25 13.32
Next report: December 12 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.