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Forecast

December 13, 2022 report

 

December 13, 2022

Most of the  lower level clouds this morning are over Kern County as upslope clouds continue to regenerate along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi. Most of the rest of the valley has cleared out with temperatures falling into the lower 30s at many locations. As the weakening storm continues to pull away, upper level high pressure will slowly build in from the west. The air above the valley floor remains cold. The balloon sound above Oakland earlier this morning indicated a  freezing level of 4,600 feet, up just a tad from yesterday. Skies should be mostly clear tonight over the entire district. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. fog will no doubt become more of a problem in the days ahead as high pressure will cap the valley, allowing the warm air inversion to develop. The only feature of note for later this week is an upper low which at one time we thought might bring a chance of showers this weekend. However, latest models are showing this feature moving southward too far off shore to affect central California. In fact, it now appears we will enjoy a period of dry weather through at least Christmas, barring anything unforeseen.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Thursday with the exception of mostly cloudy skies over Kern County later this morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds Wednesday night through Tuesday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 52/29/53/29/52 Reedley 51/30/52/29/51 Dinuba 52/29/53/29/53
Porterville 51/29//52/29/51 Lindsay 51/28/52/28/52 Delano 54/30/54/30/51
Bakersfield 52/35/52/34/53 Taft 50/35/51/36/53 Arvin 52/33/53/33/52
Lamont 53/32/53/33/52 Pixley 52/29/53/29/53 Tulare 51/28/53/28/53
Woodlake 52/28/53/29/51 Hanford 53/30/53/31/53 Orosi 52/29/53/28/51

 

Seven Day Forecast

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

32/53

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

31/54

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

32/56

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

32/54

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

33/54

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 20 through December 26:  This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will dominate our pattern during this time frame. The chance of precipitation will be low with near average temperatures.

 

December:  This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.

 

December, January, February:  This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  As of 5:30 am, the coldest temperatures I could find were 30 degrees at Sanger, Fowler, and Porterville. Most of the valley was in the low to mid 30s this morning with above freezing conditions in Kern County due to cloud cover. For Wednesday through Friday morning, expect lows generally in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Coldest river bottom or similar locations will drop down to 26 to 27 for short durations. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet generally ranging from 3  to 6 degrees warmer. As the weak wears on, the pattern will become more conducive for fog and low clouds. However, if recent years are a barometer, the fog may have a difficult time getting started. A warm air inversion will begin to develop at midweek,  though. I can remember the valley with little to no sunshine for weeks at a time in the winter. I have my own theory why this doesn’t seem to be the case in receive years.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

28

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

30

Madera

29

Belridge

28

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

30

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

af

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root creek

27

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

30

Arvin

af

Lamont

af

Plainview

29

Mettler

32

Edison

af

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/63%  Porterville, 96%/62%

Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 40s.   Kern:  Low to mid 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield:  Today 40% tomorrow 70%

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .35, Parlier, .30 Arvin .43 Porterville .32 Delano .30

Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 52 Arvin 54  Porterville .50, Delano 49  *=data missing.

Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,

Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50  *=data missing.

Soil Temperatures:

Average Temperatures: 55/37  Record Temperatures: 72/23

Heating Degree Days This Season.  693  +35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  3.23,  163%  of average, Monthly  2.57

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .1.10,  96%  of average,   Monthly:  .44

Average Temperature This Month: 50.2 +3.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 315, Parlier 425  Arvin 316 , Belridge 366, Shafter 386, Stratford 385,  Delano 400,  Porterville  403  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 7:04, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:41

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  55 /  35 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  54 /  34 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  54 /  37 /     T /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  54 /  34 /     T /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  54 /  34 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  53 /  38 /     T /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  54 /  33 /     T /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  54 /  33 /     T /

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.01    4.47   151    4.76   160     2.97    13.45

MODESTO                          T    4.48   187    3.84   160     2.40    12.27

MERCED                        0.04    3.77   163    2.22    96     2.31    11.80

MADERA                           T    2.04   102    0.69    35     2.00    10.79

FRESNO                        0.02    3.25   163    1.98    99     2.00    10.99

HANFORD                       0.05    2.34   155    1.56   103     1.51     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                      T    1.10    96    1.10    96     1.15     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    2.15   256    0.78    93     0.84     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.03    10       M     M     0.30     2.20

SALINAS                       0.08    3.77   143    2.36    89     2.64    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.06    4.34   210    1.74    84     2.07    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.31    3.27   142    1.55    67     2.31    13.32

Next report: December 13 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.