December 26, 2022
By the time this week is over, we will have put another significant dent in the drought. Satellite imagery this morning depicts the eastern Pacific Ocean alive with activity. Precipitation estimates between now and New Year’s Day put out numbers of 6 to 8 inches of rain along the southern Sierra Nevada with multiple feet of snow above 8,000 feet. These are storms of somewhat lower latitude than we’ve seen so far this season. The first will arrive tonight and Tuesday. It appears precipitation will spread to Fresno County sometime after midnight tonight, possibly becoming locally heavy at times, especially Tuesday morning. This first storm also has an atmospheric river of air which will move inland perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, setting the stage for heavy rain. There is a good chance of rain on any given day this week. since these storms are rapidly evolving, timing issues will become a challenge. Rainfall estimates for the valley are discussed below in the rainfall discussion. Because these storms are from a lower latitude, snow levels will be high so flooding may become a challenge later in the week as heavy rain falls on a heavy snow pack.
Forecast: Widespread dense fog this morning with increasing cloudiness above the fog. A chance of rain tonight, mainly after midnight and mainly from Fresno north. Rain Tuesday morning, locally heavy at times. Periods of rain Tuesday afternoon and night. There will be periods of rain Wednesday all the way through next Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 51//44/55//47/54 | Reedley 52/45/56/46/54 | Dinuba 50/45//55/47/55 |
| Porterville 53/48/56/48/54 | Lindsay 52/48/55/47/56 | Delano 53/48/56/48/55 |
| Bakersfield 54/50/57/51/56 | Taft 58/52/59/49/55 | Arvin 60/48/59/48/56 |
| Lamont 59/47/59/46/55 | Pixley 53/45/55/47/54 | Tulare 51/44/55/47/54 |
| Woodlake 52/45/56/48/55 | Hanford 52/44/56/47/54 | Orosi 53/43/56/46/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Rain likely 47/56 |
Friday
Rain likely 48/57 |
Saturday
Rain likely 47/57 |
Sunday
Rain likely 49/57 |
Monday
Rain likely 41/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 1 through January 7: the storm door will be wide open during this time frame as Pacific storms run generally from west to east into California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds over the next few days will be quite breezy at times. Pressure gradients will tighten up significantly, generating gusty winds over the southeast at 10 to 20 mph south of Fresno County and 15 to 25 mph from a Kings and Fresno line northward. Gusts to 35 mph will be possible late tonight through Tuesday night. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will continue out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain Today is the last dry day we’ll see for a while as significant amounts of precipitation will be recorded this week. today will be dry then the chance of rain will begin to increase around midnight,, mainly from Fresno north, spreading over the remainder of the valley Tuesday morning. I’m going to keep a good chance of rain in the forecast for any given day through next Monday as waves of low pressure move from west to east into California. Rainfall estimates for the week are very impressive. As much as 2 to 3 inches may be recorded from roughly Porterville north on the east side of the valley, an inch to an inch and a half is likely along the east side of Fresno County and anywhere from three quarters of an inch to one inch over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Three to four inches is not out of the question for Merced County. Medium range models show the storm door remaining opening through about the sixth of January so by the time this pattern breaks, a huge dent will be recorded in the drought.
Frost: Expect dry conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 100%/100%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s:
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 10%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .03, Parlier, .06 Arvin .16, Porterville .07 Delano .09
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 47 Arvin 50 Porterville .45, Delano 45 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/36 Record Temperatures: 70/21
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1003 +89 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 116% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 67% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month 45.3 -0.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 566, Parlier 697 Arvin 563 Belridge 631, Shafter 651, Stratford 658, Delano 675, Porterville 671 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:10, Sunset, 4:50, hours of daylight, 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 44 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 46 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 48 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 44 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 45 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 49 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 43 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 44 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 111 7.71 192 4.01 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 133 7.51 224 3.36 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 120 4.99 158 3.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 73 1.26 45 2.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 116 4.70 167 2.81 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 110 4.15 196 2.12 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 67 3.34 204 1.64 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 192 4.47 399 1.12 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 7 M M 0.42 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 106 5.43 153 3.55 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 148 6.16 210 2.94 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 102 5.69 177 3.21 13.32
Next report: December 26 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.