December 27, 2022
An atmospheric river of air has been hammering central California, moving from west to east from San Francisco on the north to Ventura on the south. Surface observations north of Kern County are reporting light rain to even moderate and heavy at times. As expected, precipitation along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada has been heavy with amounts generally in the one to two inch range since sunrise. Amounts on the valley floor have also been significant, which is discussed below. This river of air is only very slowly moving towards the south so precipitation will be widespread tonight and into the early morning hours Wednesday. We will be between systems Wednesday, allowing the rain to taper off and even end for a bit. However, system number two…which is also strong…will move inland Wednesday night and Thursday with heaviest precipitation from Fresno north. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an eastern Pacific Ocean which is just churning with activity. This is more of an El Nino pattern rather than La Nina, which is what we are currently in. the next system will arrive in northern California Friday, however the southern range of the precipitation shield will also affect our district. Another system will move through Saturday into Sunday. This one may be a full blown winter storm. Models for next week are bringing the storm track back further south again with multiple chances for rain. Some of these systems may be light. A system is expected to move on shore about every 36 to 48 hours. Estimates we discussed this morning seem very plausible as we are only in the first portion of the first event.
Forecast: Rain tonight, locally heavy at times. Tapering off during the early morning hours. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Periods of rain Thursday through Friday. Rain at times Friday night through Saturday morning, locally heavy at times. Rain at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. a chance of showers Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 45/55/41/54 | Reedley 44/53/41/54 | Dinuba 41/53/40/54 |
| Porterville 43/53/40/53 | Lindsay 41/53/40/52 | Delano 44/54/40/54 |
| Bakersfield 45/53/43/52 | Taft 45/53/41//52 | Arvin 45/54/42/54 |
| Lamont 43/54/43/55 | Pixley 44/54/41/54 | Tulare 43/53/40/53 |
| Woodlake 42/52/41/53 | Hanford 44/54/41/53 | Orosi 42/52/41/52 |
Wind Discussion: There are strong differences in pressure between relatively higher pressure over southern California and the parent low off the Pacific Northwest. This will result in gusty southeast winds from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds should average 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph are possible from Fresno County north and along the Interstate 5 corridor through tonight. From Wednesday through Friday, winds will continue out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts, interspersed with periods of lighter winds.
Rain Rainfall amounts along the Sierra Nevada as of the time of this writing generally ranged from 1.50 to 2.50 north of Kern County. The following are totals as of noon on the valley floor: Bakersfield .03, Belridge .08, Delano .17, Porterville .37, Exeter .51, Visalia .43, Lemoore .89, Kettleman Hills .27, Fresno .68, Madera .34, Merced .77.
There is a shaft of rain coming on shore, moving from west to east from San Francisco on the north to around Ventura on the south. Areas that favor lift will no doubt pick up 5 or more inches from this first storm alone. Rain will continue into the early morning hours Wednesday, locally heavy at times. A short break will occur Wednesday before a somewhat weaker system arrives late Wednesday night through Thursday night with the possibility of another wave Friday. The chance of rain will continue over the weekend with storms arriving every 24 to 36 hours. From the current storm, we should receive another .75 to 1.25 before it tapers off early tomorrow morning. That’s along the east side from Porterville north. Another half to three quarters of an inch is possible alongj the west side and possibly .50 to .75 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: December 28 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.