December 28, 2022
Many locations received more than an inch of precipitation from yesterday’s storm. In the mountains, anywhere from two to three and a half inches accumulated. Today, we find ourselves in a short break between systems. The next wave of low pressure is not nearly as moisture laden as yesterday’s event. However, I do think it’s possible wetter locations on the valley floor could measure .33 to .50 north of Kern County. Another rapidly moving wave of low pressure will arrive Friday through Friday night. A major winter storm will pound California Saturday. Models depict an atmospheric river of air right into central California. It’s possible that rain totals may add up to more than an inch again on the valley floor, especially along the east side where the air is lifted along the Sierra Nevada foothills. For now, there just doesn’t appear to be any end in sight. Typically, event like this don’t happen during La Nina years. La Nina or no La Nina, it is happening. Fresno has received almost double it’s rainfall for December with almost 4 inches of rain. Medium range models are showing the storm door remaining open with weather systems next week arriving 24 to 36 hours apart. Incidentally, the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada received 2 to 3 feet of new snow yesterday. The snow level of the next storm will begin at around 5,000 to 6,000 feet then rise to around 7,500 feet as milder air moves in from the mid Pacific.
Forecast: Areas of fog this morning. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy. A chance of rain after midnight tonight. Rain likely at times Thursday through Thursday night. Periods of showers Friday and Friday night. Rain likely Saturday through Saturday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Sunday morning. Areas of fog Sunday morning. A chance of rain Monday night, becoming likely Tuesday. A chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 55/41/55/45/59 | Reedley 54/40/54/45/59 | Dinuba 53/41/54/46/59 |
| Porterville 55/42/51/42/60 | Lindsay 54/40/54/47/60 | Delano 53/42/53/47/60 |
| Bakersfield 53/43/53/48/61 | Taft 51/42/51/49/60 | Arvin 54/43/54/46/61 |
| Lamont 55/42/54/47/61 | Pixley 54/41/54/46/60 | Tulare 53/40/53/46/58 |
| Woodlake 53/42/51/45/59 | Hanford 54/42/51/45/59 | Orosi 53/40/53/46/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Rain likely 53/62 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 46/62 |
Monday
PM showers 39/55 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 42/54 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model shows the storm door remaining open during this time frame with above average rainfall. Temperatures during this time frame are anticipated to be near seasonal averages.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds Thursday through Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, mainly from Tulare County north.
Rain: The following are storm totals from yesterday’s event: Bakersfield .85, Delano .74, Lemoore .92, Hanford .95, Lemoore NAS 1.15, Visalia 1.10, Exeter 1.46, Porterville 1.26, Fresno 1.20, and Merced 1.23.
Most locations along the Sierra Nevada recorded between 2.50 and 3.50. We are currently in the middle of a brief break in the action. The next low pressure system is not as moist, but will spread showers over the valley later tonight and Thursday. This event should drop anywhere from .33 to .50 along the east side of the valley north of Kern County, around .25 seems plausible for the west side of the valley, and perhaps .25 or so over the valley portion of Kern County. Models are showing a new atmospheric river of air arriving late Friday through Saturday. This storm could possibly approach yesterday’s event with significant amounts of rain. Both the ten day and the two week models show a pattern that’s favorable for more storms to move into California. When was the last time that avalanche warnings were hoisted for the Sierra? There are avalanche warnings for the entire east slope of the Sierra.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/96% Porterville, 100%/96%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 020%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .03, Parlier, .06 Arvin .13, Porterville .06, Delano .07
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 48 Arvin 50 Porterville .45, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 66/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1039 +85 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 4.45 146% of average, Monthly 3.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.93, 90% of average, Monthly: .1.27
Average Temperature This Month 45.5 -0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 590, Parlier 742 Arvin 604 Belridge 672, Shafter 696, Stratford 703, Delano 720, Porterville 714 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 4:51, hours of daylight, 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 38 / 0.90 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 46 / 0.50 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 49 / 1.14 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 54 / 51 / 0.91 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 55 / 45 / 0.90 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 49 / 0.85 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 50 / 1.06 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 53 / 50 / 1.23 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 1.13 5.80 139 8.09 194 4.18 13.45
MODESTO 1.52 6.18 176 8.01 228 3.52 12.27
MERCED 0.82 4.65 141 5.60 170 3.30 11.80
MADERA 0.46 2.51 86 1.42 48 2.93 10.79
FRESNO 1.05 4.32 146 4.99 169 2.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.84 3.18 143 4.31 193 2.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.44 1.54 90 3.48 202 1.72 6.36
BISHOP 0.17 2.32 195 4.48 376 1.19 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 7 M M 0.44 2.20
SALINAS 1.80 5.57 151 6.05 164 3.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.86 5.20 168 6.46 209 3.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 1.19 4.46 132 6.04 179 3.37 13.32
Next report: December 28 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.