January 3, 2023
The weak weather system that moved through overnight dropped meager amounts of precipitation with most locations recording less than .10 of an inch. That will not be the case with the next event which will occur Wednesday afternoon and continue well into Thursday evening. A powerful Pacific storm will center off the California/Oregon border by Wednesday night with a strong frontal system extending out of the low and moving through California. The surface chart indicates tightly wound isobars which means strong winds will be part of this along the west side of the valley and possibly even the extreme south valley, although the distance between Kern County and the low’s center may preclude any winds in the extreme south. These are always difficult to forecast. Currently, my feeling is that this is 50/50. Substantial amounts of precipitation will occur over central California. This is a mild system with high snow levels and 2 to 3 inches of rain is possible below the snow line will result in a great deal of run off. The rain will begin to taper off by late evening Thursday with dry conditions late Thursday night through Friday night. Models show the storm track being nudged a bit further north over the weekend with precipitation spreading as far south as Fresno County Saturday afternoon and possibly further south Saturday night through Sunday night. Another stronger storm will dig south Monday with another round of possibly significant precipitation. medium range models continue to indicate the storm track will remain at a lower latitude, meaning additional chances of precipitation will be possible down the road.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. A chance of rain after midnight tonight. Rain likely at times Wednesday through Thursday evening. Partly cloudy late Thursday night through Friday night. A chance of showers Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of rain Saturday night through Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Rain likely Monday. a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/44/60/51/58 | Reedley 58/43/61/51/58 | Dinuba 57/43/58/51/57 |
| Porterville 59/44/58/51/57 | Lindsay 58/44/58/52/58 | Delano 59/45/61/53/57 |
| Bakersfield 59/46/60/54/57 | Taft 57/47/60/51/57 | Arvin 59/45/58/52/59 |
| Lamont 59/43/59/52/58 | Pixley 58/43/60/52/58 | Tulare 57/43/57/51/57 |
| Woodlake 58/43/59/50/58 | Hanford 60/43/58/53/57 | Orosi 58/43/58/51/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Partly cloudy 40/58 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 41/55 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 43/56 |
Monday
Rain likely 45/57 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 49/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 9 through January 15; This model shows high pressure southwest of it’s average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high, especially from Fresno County north.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: This next storm is very intense and will create large differences in pressure between off shore northern California and southern California. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph by Wednesday evening with gusts to 35 mph along the east side, continuing through Thursday. There is a chance of some strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley, although there’s a great deal of mileage between southern California and the parent low off the Oregon/California border. There’s a 50% chance of winds out of the southeast gusting to 50 mph or so at places like the bottom of the Grapevine. These winds are always difficult to forecast, but for now I do place it at a 50% possibility. Winds will decrease by Thursday evening in all areas to around 5 to 12 mph or so out of the southeast Friday.
Rain: Today will be dry with the next round of precipitation beginning tonight, more than likely after midnight. Widespread rain will occur Wednesday all the way through Thursday evening. This is a huge storm which will cover a great deal of real estate, dropping anywhere from .75 to 1.25 of an inch along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. A rain shadow will no doubt develop along the west side with most locations picking up .33 to .75. Most locations over the valley portion of Kern County will receive .50 or less with locally more. The southern Sierra Nevada will pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain below the snow level. From late Thursday evening through Friday night, we’ll see a dry slot. Models have been showing the storm track sliding a bit north over the weekend with the valley sitting under the far southern portion of the precipitation field. There’s a reasonably good chance of rain from Fresno County north with a lesser chance further south. Yet another storm will arrive Monday and continue well into Tuesday. This system will drop more significant precipitation over the valley and nearby mountains. Models are adamant about the storm door remaining open all the way through January 16.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/54% Porterville, 100%/68%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .20, Parlier, .12 Arvin .18, Porterville .08, Delano .13
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1118 +51 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 5.75, 161% of average, Monthly .50
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.48, 120% of average, Monthly: .13
Average Temperature This Month 45.8 -0.2 +0.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 611, Parlier 745 Arvin 619 Belridge 682, Shafter 708, Stratford 713, Delano 734, Porterville 719 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:56, hours of daylight, 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 49 / 38 / 0.03 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 49 / 36 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 39 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 50 / 36 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 50 / 35 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1535 / 44 / 37 / T /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 38 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.09 9.83 211 8.21 176 4.66 13.45
MODESTO 0.11 8.32 209 8.15 204 3.99 12.27
MERCED 0.04 6.37 172 5.79 156 3.71 11.80
MADERA 0.02 2.92 88 1.46 44 3.32 10.79
FRESNO 0.01 5.43 161 5.21 155 3.37 10.99
HANFORD 0.03 3.89 152 4.60 180 2.56 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 2.37 120 3.55 180 1.97 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.12 223 4.50 321 1.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 6 M M 0.50 2.20
SALINAS T 6.27 152 6.11 148 4.13 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.02 6.27 175 7.12 199 3.58 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 5.96 153 6.09 157 3.89 13.32
Next report: January 3 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.