January 5, 2023
Winds have decreased in most locations as of this hour, although gusts to 30 to 40 mph are still occurring from Fresno County north. By far the grand champion wind gust yesterday was 106 mph atop Grapevine peak at the top of the Ridge Route. A 60 mph gust was reported just east of Bakersfield and a 62 mph wind gust was recorded on Digier Rd Hilltop. The center of circulation of the parent low is west of the Oregon coast this morning and is weakening. An AR is currently moving through the Central Valley with locally heavy amounts of rain over much of Fresno, Tulare Counties and much of Kern County. The cold front is located in the western San Joaquin Valley and is moving slowly eastward. Once the front moves through, the rain will turn to showers. If we receive any sunshine during the late morning or afternoon hours, the chance for isolated to even scattered thunderstorms will occur. Showers will continue through at least the early evening hours before we can finally put this one to bed. The freezing level taken a short time ago over Oakland was at 6,300 feet so snow is probably falling down to 5,800 feet or so. A weak ridge of temporary high pressure will build in from the west for a very dry period later tonight through Friday night. The next weather system is much weaker but will spread light rain over the valley Saturday night and Sunday, mostly north of Kern County. Monday will see the beginning of another system. This one will also have an attachment of an atmospheric river for yet another big event for central California, although it won’t be quite as strong as the current storm. It will have the potential of dropping another inch or so over parts of the valley. This event should last into Tuesday. Models continue to show a parade of storms moving from west to east across California every 24 to 36 hours late next week and into the following week.
Forecast: Rain this morning, south of Fresno County, with showers elsewhere. Showers this afternoon into the evening with a chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Party to mostly cloudy later tonight. Partly cloudy Friday through Friday night. A chance of light rain again by Saturday evening. Mostly light rain at times Saturday night through Sunday night. Rain Monday through Tuesday,, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 59/40/55/39/58/ | Reedley 59/42/56/40/56 | Dinuba 58/40/55/38/57 |
| Porterville 60/42/55/41/58 | Lindsay 59/42/55/40/58 | Delano 60/43/56/40/56 |
| Bakersfield 61/45/55/42/58 | Taft 59/42/57/42/58 | Arvin 60/43/56/40/55 |
| Lamont 59/43/55/41/58 | Pixley 59/41/55/39/58 | Tulare 57/41/55/38/57 |
| Woodlake 58/40/56/40/55 | Hanford 59/42/57/41/55 | Orosi 58/39/56/39/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Rain likely 44/58 |
Monday
Rain likely 47/59 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 50/61 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/58 |
Thursday
Pm rain possible 41/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18; This model shows high pressure southwest of its average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds are still relatively strong in the valley, but not as strong as during the overnight hours. As pressure differences continue to relax, winds will decrease to 5 to 15 mph by this afternoon. Gusts over 30 mph are possible this afternoon near the base of any thunderstorms. Winds later tonight through Friday night will be generally light, becoming mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph Saturday and increasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday with stronger gusts.
Rain: An atmospheric river of air is currently draped from southwest to northeast across the southern half of the valley where locally heavy rain is occurring with scattered showers elsewhere. The rain will break off into showers later this morning with an increasing chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Rainfall with any of these storms will be locally heavy with small hail. The showers will finally come to an end this evening with dry weather Friday through Friday and possibly even through Saturday. The next system is weaker but will spread more precipitation over the valley Saturday night, continuing on and off through Sunday. Another full blown winter storm will spread more precipitation over the water logged area Monday through Tuesday, possibly locally heavy at times. With some luck, Wednesday into Thursday will be dry. It appears Pacific storms will continue to move inland over California every 24 to 36 hours or so later next week through the following week
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/38% Porterville, 100%/51%
Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .25, Parlier, .17, Arvin .25, Porterville .15, Delano .20
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 53, Porterville 50, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 72/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1141 +36 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 5.91, 165% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.49, 121% of average, Monthly: .14
Average Temperature This Month 49.5 +3.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 627, Parlier 761 Arvin 639 Belridge 703, Shafter 729, Stratford 735, Delano 754, Porterville 735 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:58, hours of daylight, 9:45.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 53 / 1.12 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 55 / 0.13 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 54 / 0.23 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 54 / 0.28 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 68 / 54 / 0.21 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 55 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 53 / 0.28 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 50 / 0.07 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.39 10.70 222 8.21 170 4.83 13.45
MODESTO 0.23 8.79 212 8.15 196 4.15 12.27
MERCED 0.25 6.86 178 5.79 150 3.86 11.80
MADERA 0.04 3.08 89 1.46 42 3.45 10.79
FRESNO 0.04 5.79 165 5.21 148 3.51 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 4.01 150 4.60 172 2.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.48 121 3.55 173 2.05 6.36
BISHOP 0.02 3.14 212 4.50 304 1.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.20 38 M M 0.52 2.20
SALINAS T 6.27 146 6.11 142 4.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.04 6.36 170 7.12 190 3.75 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.03 6.09 150 6.09 150 4.07 13.32
Next report: January 5 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible