January 7, 2023
The latest atmospheric river has been moving into northern California today from about Monterey on the south to the North Bay counties on the north. From there, it’s moving into the Sacramento Valley and the northern Sierra Nevada. This energy will move south into central California tonight with mostly light rain. It’s the system after this one that is of the most concern. This is a large storm which will have a pineapple connection with rising snow levels by Monday night. Blended model information indicates Porterville should receive about 1.25 just on Monday alone. Model information further north shows impressive amounts of rain, possibly 2 to 3 inches from Fresno County north. As pressure differences begin to tighten up ahead of this storm, gusty southeast winds will begin, gusting to 30 to 40 mph along the west side with gusts to35 mph possible. This is by no means the end of activity as more weather will develop later next week. we’ll get a bit of a break later Tuesday night and possibly into Friday. It appears yet another major winter storm will develop beginning possibly as early as late Thursday night with more locally heavy rain Friday night and Saturday. Satellite imagery is quite interesting this afternoon. A lot of convection just off shore shows up so I wouldn’t be surprised to see thunderstorms anytime Monday through Tuesday.
Forecast: Light rain spreading over the valley tonight, especially after midnight. Periods of light rain Sunday, especially during the morning. Showers becoming likely Sunday night. Rain Monday through Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms along with strong, gusty, southeasterly winds. Showers tapering off Tuesday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance of showers. Rain becoming likely again Friday and at times through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 47/60//50/61 | Reedley 48/61/50/61 | Dinuba 47/60/50/60 |
| Porterville 48/62/50/62 | Lindsay 47/61/49/63 | Delano 48/62//51/63 |
| Bakersfield 50/62/51/63 | Taft 47/61/50/62 | Arvin 49/63/50/63 |
| Lamont 49/62/51/63 | Pixley 47/60/48/61 | Tulare 46/61/50/60 |
| Woodlake 47/61/48/62 | Hanford 48/62/51/62 | Orosi 47/61/50/62 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday will continue out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday night. Gusty south to southeast winds will continue Monday through Tuesday at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: High resolution blended model information continues to be most impressive. The River Forecast Center for california and Nevada is forecasting as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain from Fresno County northward through Merced County from Sunday through Friday. One to two inches is forecast for Tulare County with 1.00 to 1.50 projected for Kern County. The first of two storms will begin to affect the growing area later tonight and will continue through Sunday. Amounts from this system will be light, ranging from a quarter to a third of an inch from Fresno County north, only a few hundredths are expected over the valley portion of Kern County. Storm number two will be a big event, spreading rain over the valley Monday. if these rainfall estimates are anywhere close to being correct, from 2 to 3 inches of rain is possible north of Kern County. Rain shadows will cut that number down to at least half over the valley portion of Kern County. Thunderstorms are also possible. Nocturnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The AR will be southeast of our region Tuesday night with precipitation ending. Another possible major storm will affect central California by this coming weekend. There is so much activity between these systems that I feel it’s necessary to keep at least a small chance of showers in the forecast each night with a higher risk by Friday. This coming weekend also looks wet, especially Saturday. The new two week outlook also looks favorable for more rain. This last note: 3 to 5 feet of new snow is expected over the higher elevations Monday and Tuesday alone.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 8 morning
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