January 8, 2023
The latest in a series of Pacific storms is moving thorough this morning with widespread, mainly light showers. The showers will end by late morning with several hours of dry weather before the next big event unfolds. High resolution modeling, both for the Sierra Nevada and the valley floor, is absolutely amazing. Projections for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada is 6 to 10 inches of rain from tonight through Tuesday night. The foothills are projected to pick up 4 to 8 inches. I chose a couple of San Joaquin Valley communities for rainfall estimates: Porterville 2.22, Fresno 2.98, Bakersfield 1.27, and Merced 3.40. Another model had Fresno pegged at 2.58. Satellite imagery this morning depicts the backside of the current storm is finally moving inland. It’s behind that that the major event will follow. An intense low off he northern and central coast with a trail of rich tropical moisture from north of Hawaii will move into the southern flank of the storm. Flooding is likely along the rivers and streams of the Sierra Nevada with a great deal of ponding on the valley floor. Isolated thunderstorms are also likely Monday night and Tuesday. When and if these occur, they will be accompanied by heavy rain. Heaviest rain will occur Monday night and Tuesday. It now looks like we’ll have a 48 hour break in the rain before the next storm, one that looks to be very strong, affects us over the weekend. We may see some light showers as early as Friday as a wave of low pressure moves inland ahead of the weekend event. For the first time in about two weeks the
GFS model is showing an extended period of dry weather beginning about the 19 or 20. If storms continue to move in as they have been, this could be the longest stretch of wet weather in recent years.
Forecast: Showers for a time this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon through the evening hours. Rain spreading over the valley tonight, especially after midnight. Rain at times Monday through Tuesday a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Showers Tuesday evening ending by midnight. Becoming mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday and Friday night. Rain likely at times Saturday through Saturday night. A chance of showers Sunday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 62//53/63/52/57 | Reedlley 62/54/62/53/58 | Dinuba 61/53/62/53/57 |
| Porterville 63/53/63/51/57 | Lindsay 63/52/61/53/56 | Delano 63/53/63/53/58 |
| Bakersfied 64/54/63/52//57 | Taft 63/55/64/52/57 | Arvin 64/53/63/52/57 |
| Lamont 64/54/63/52/58 | Pixley 63/53/63/52/56 | Tulare 61/52/61//53/57 |
| Woodlake 62/52/62/52/57 | Hanford 63/54/633/53/56 | Orosi 61//52/62/53/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Party cloudy 41/57 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/577 |
Friday
Pm showers 42/61 |
Saturday
Rain likely 45/62 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 44/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20; This model shows high pressure southwest of its average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: High resolution modeling, both for the Sierra Nevada and the valley floor, is absolutely amazing. Projections for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada is 6 to 10 inches of rain from tonight through Tuesday night. The foothills are projected to pick up 4 to 8 inches. I chose a couple of San Joaquin Valley communities for rainfall estimates: Porterville 2.22, Fresno 2.98, Bakersfield 1.27, and Merced 3.40. Another model had Fresno pegged at 2.58.
This morning’s showers will end by noon with several hours of dry weather this afternoon and evening. Rain will spread over the area during the late evening hours, continuing through Tuesday evening. Rain will be heavy at times especially Monday night through Tuesday morning. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, especially Monday night and Tuesday. Rain will finally come to an end by midnight Tuesday leading to a couple of dry days Wednesday through Thursday night. A little weak wave of low pressure will give a chance of showers Friday. Rain will again spread over the valley late Friday morning through Saturday with a chance of showers Sunday.
Rain: I have a summary of computer generated rainfall estimates. Computer generated
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Bakersfield 97%/58%. Porterville, Mid to upper 97%59%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .33, Parlier, .31, Arvin .34, Porterville .27, Delano .30 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 53, Porterville 50, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 72/22
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1179 +17 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.34 174% of average, Monthly 1.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.60, 122% of average, Monthly: .14
Average Temperature This Month 50.6 +4.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 776, Arvin 649 Belridge 721, Shafter 746, Stratford 754, Delano 771, Porterville 749 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 5:00, hours of daylight, 9:48.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 51 / 0.46 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 52 / 0.08 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 53 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 52 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 51 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 51 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 10.97 216 8.21 162 5.08 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.29 211 8.15 185 4.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.91 193 5.82 142 4.09 11.80
MADERA 0.00 3.32 91 1.52 42 3.64 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 170 5.21 140 3.73 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.52 159 4.60 161 2.85 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.60 120 3.55 164 2.17 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.66 227 4.50 280 1.61 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.23 42 M M 0.55 2.20
SALINAS T 6.84 151 6.11 135 4.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.46 186 7.12 178 4.01 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.98 184 6.10 141 4.33 13.32