January 8, 2023
Modeling this afternoon continues to show mind boggling amounts of rain on the way. This is what the estimate is for Oakhurst, for example: 6.36, 8.44 at Lodgepole with 9.44 at Shaver Lake. These numbers are for tonight through Tuesday night. On the valley floor, from Porterville north projections are anywhere from 1.50 to more than 3 inches at Merced. Bakersfield and Kern County will be dealing with their usual rain shadow. Even so, an inch would be no surprise. Obviously, with torrents of rain expected in the mountains, initially at high elevations, run off along the Sierra Nevada rivers and streams will be at flood stage. The leading edge of the cloud deck from this storm is just off shore. Doppler radar out of Monterey still had nothing showing up. That will change in the coming hours with rain reaching the west side of the valley later tonight, rapidly spreading over the entire region
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts thunderstorms in the cold sector of the storm and a clear cut pineapple connection stretching from the southern portion of the low to north of Hawaii. This system will not be over until sometime Tuesday night, but we will be dealing with some lingering showers Wednesday morning.
Another element of this storm will be wind. Models are projecting wind into the 40s at Lamont and
Arvin and near 50 at Taft with tightly wound isobars on the surface chart. Expect wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph, especially along the west side. Wind prone areas may see gusts to 50 to 60 mph. a weak ridge of high pressure will try to move into central and southern California Wednesday night through Friday with, perhaps, a 72 hour reprieve. The weekend storm coming up is a horse of a different color. Latest forecasts show much of the energy with this system will move into southern California Saturday through Sunday and possibly somewhat less rain for central California.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this evening. Rain later tonight through Tuesday evening, locally heavy at times. Showers Tuesday night. A chance of a few showers Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a chance of rain after midnight. Occasional rain Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures:
Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s. highs Monday will warm into the low to mid 60s. lows Monday night will cool into the lower 50s. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Nest report: January 9 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.